航运衍生品数据日报-20250619

Group 1: Report Summary - Report title: Shipping Derivatives Data Daily Report [4] - Date: June 19, 2025 [5] - Analyst: Lu Zhaoyi from the Energy and Chemical Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [5] - Investment advisory number: Z0021177 [5] - Qualification number: F03101843 [5] - Data sources: Clarksons, Wind [5] Group 2: Shipping Index Data Freight Rate Index - SCFI Composite Index: Current value is 2088, previous value was 2240, a decline of 6.79% [5] - CCFI Index: Current value is 1243, previous value was 1155, an increase of 7.63% [5] - SCFI - US West: Current value is 4120, previous value was 5606, a decline of 26.51% [5] - SCFIS - US West: Current value is 2908, previous value was 2185, an increase of 33.08% [5] - SCFI - US East: Current value is 6745, previous value was 6939, a decline of 2.80% [5] - SCFI - Northwest Europe: Current value is 1844, previous value was 1667, an increase of 10.62% [5] - SCFIS - Northwest Europe: Current value is 1697, previous value was 1623, an increase of 4.57% [5] - SCFI - Mediterranean: Current value is 3190, previous value was 3302, a decline of 3.39% [5] Contract Data - Contract Prices: For contracts EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, the current values are 1901.8, 2038.0, 1416.1, 1611.0, 1431.5, 1240.4 respectively, with corresponding changes of -1.68%, 0.39%, 0.10%, -0.01%, -1.52%, -2.61% compared to the previous values [5] - Contract Holdings: For contracts EC2506, EC2508, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, EC2604, the current holdings are 4668, 44501, 28998, 6225, 2901, 3682 respectively, with corresponding changes of -536, 843, -240, -107, -230, 122 compared to the previous values [5] - Monthly Spreads: The current values of 10 - 12, 12 - 2, 12 - 4 spreads are 621.9, -194.9, 370.6 respectively, with corresponding changes of 6.6, 1.6, 33.1 compared to the previous values [5] Group 3: Market Analysis Spot Market - Late - June Price Hike: Leading airlines are considering price hikes in late June. For example, COSCO's offline quote is 4200, CMA's is 4250, ONE's is 3000, MSC plans to raise prices to 3900 (offline 3250), Maersk's opening price from Shanghai to London is 2800 (to Rotterdam is 2820), and HPL's is 3500 [10] - Current Week's Freight Rates: Spot freight rates have been rising this week. Quotes for European base ports in late June have reached $2,800 - 3,200 per 40 - foot container, and the upward trend is expected to continue until mid - to - late July. The increase in spot freight rates is expected to intensify logistics chain pressure in late June and drive up the booking rate of long - term contracts. Shipping companies are tightening the policy of releasing low - price contracts [10] - Early - July Quotes: MSK quotes 3400 for July, HPL quotes 4350, CMA quotes 4650, and ONE quotes 4000 [10] Futures Market - Market Trend: The market is in a volatile state [9] - Influence of Geopolitical Conflicts: Geopolitical conflicts, although having a limited direct impact on supply and demand, have triggered a chain reaction that has become an important driving force for the increase in container shipping market freight rates, such as the rise in marine fuel oil costs and insurance premiums. Airlines will take advantage of this to try to raise freight rates in July. The most important factor for the European route is that the full resumption time of alliance shipping companies has been further postponed, and the sentiment from August to December will be most positively affected [10] Group 4: Strategy - Hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [11]