拥挤度指标运用的深入思考

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that in the long term, A-share industries are likely to underperform within a month after experiencing "acceleration followed by volume release," with exceptions noted during the core asset era of 2020-2021, where the market showed "overheating followed by more overheating" [1][2][21] - The report emphasizes that the effectiveness of volume-price logic has been steadily increasing since 2023, making volume-price and technical aspects more important [2][21] - High congestion levels may indicate the initial bottom volume of a market, potentially signaling the start of a long-term trend, particularly evident in the TMT sector [1][7] Group 2 - The report identifies that the banking and military industries are suitable for observing acceleration and congestion signals to find selling points [3][24] - It highlights that the banking sector is characterized by stable dividends and lower volatility compared to resource sectors, relying on incremental funds and limited floating shares for slow bull market growth [24] - The military sector's investment logic has evolved, now incorporating military trade logic alongside previous factors such as technology civilianization and margin increases [24] Group 3 - The report analyzes the profit expectations and valuations across various industries, indicating that the overall A-share market is projected to have a net profit growth rate of -2.21% for 2024, with a PE ratio of 16.44 [26] - The report provides insights into the PB-ROE perspective, showing that the current PB for the entire A-share market is 1.52, with a historical median of 1.73, indicating a 16% current percentile [28] - It notes that the entrepreneurial board shows a higher PB of 3.69, with a current percentile of 13%, suggesting a significant valuation compared to historical levels [28]