日度策略参考-20250619

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm oil, Soybean oil, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short - fiber, PE, PVC, LPG [1] - Bearish: Copper, Nickel, Stainless steel, Industrial silicon, Polysilicon, Carbonate lithium, Rebar, Iron ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda ash, Coking coal, Coke, Cotton, Pulp, Logs, Asphalt, Styrene, Alumina [1] - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Silver, Zinc, Lead, Natural gas, Crude oil, Bitumen, Shanghai rubber, Freight index [1] 2) Core Viewpoints - The domestic economic fundamentals have weak support, with low short - term domestic policy expectations and increasing overseas disturbances. The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing upward movement [1]. - Geopolitical situations such as the Middle East situation and the Israel - Iran conflict have significant impacts on the prices of commodities like gold, crude oil, and chemical products [1]. - Supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and inventory levels are key factors affecting commodity prices. For example, supply - side production increases or decreases, changes in downstream demand, and inventory accumulation or depletion all play important roles [1]. 3) Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - Financial - Stock Index: Weak and oscillating, use options to hedge uncertainties [1] - Treasury Bond: Oscillating, with asset shortage and weak economy being favorable, but central - bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppressing upward movement [1] - Gold: Oscillating in the short - term, with a solid upward trend in the long - term, but beware of short - term risks of a sharp rise followed by a fall [1] - Silver: Oscillating [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: At risk of price correction after rising, as market risk preference is volatile and downstream demand is in the off - season [1] - Aluminum: Strong, with low inventory and risk of a short squeeze [1] - Alumina: Oscillating, with falling spot prices, weaker futures prices, and increased production from smelting putting pressure on the futures [1] - Nickel: Weak and oscillating in the short - term, with long - term oversupply pressure, suggest short - term range trading and selling - hedging on rebounds [1] - Stainless Steel: Oscillating at the bottom in the short - term, with long - term supply pressure, suggest short - term trading and industry players should pay attention to policy changes and steel - mill production schedules [1] - Tin: Oscillating at a high level in the short - term, as supply contradictions intensify due to restrictions on tin - ore transportation [1] Black Metals - Rebar: No upward price drivers during the transition from peak to off - season, with loose supply - demand and cost support [1] - Iron Ore: Oscillating, with a possible increase in supply in June, loose supply - demand, and insufficient cost support [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oversupply pressure persists, with downward production due to profit pressure and weakening demand [1] - Glass: Weakening, as demand weakens during the off - season [1] - Soda Ash: Under pressure, with concerns about oversupply due to increased production and weak terminal demand [1] - Coking Coal: Bearish, with the upper limit of the price anchored at the warehouse - receipt cost of 780 - 800, still suitable for short - selling [1] - Coke: Bearish, with falling prices following the decline in coking - coal costs [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Bullish in the short - term, as the US biodiesel RVO quota proposal may tighten global oil supply - demand, but beware of crude - oil fluctuations [1] - Soybean Oil: Bullish, with similar logic to palm oil [1] - Cotton: Oscillating and weakening, affected by trade negotiations, weather premiums, and the off - season of the domestic cotton - spinning industry [1] - Corn: Oscillating in the short - term, with a bullish long - term trend due to expected tight supply - demand, suggest buying on dips [1] - Soybean Meal: Suggest waiting and seeing, and pay attention to the adjustment of US soybean and corn planting areas in the end - of - month report [1] - Pulp: Demand is weak, but the downside is limited, suggest waiting and seeing, and a 7 - 9 reverse spread is recommended [1] - Logs: With high positions near the delivery of the main contract and intense capital games, suggest waiting and seeing [1] - Live Pigs: Futures are stable, with sufficient supply expectations, but short - term spot prices are less affected by slaughter, and there may be support during the summer consumption peak [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Oscillating, affected by the Middle East situation and the summer consumption peak [1] - Asphalt: Oscillating, with cost drag, inventory normalization, and slow demand recovery [1] - Shanghai Rubber: Oscillating, with the narrowing of the futures - spot price difference, falling raw - material prices, and significant inventory decline [1] - BR Rubber: Strong and oscillating in the short - term, supported by cost increases [1] - PTA: Bullish, with a strong spot basis due to the Israel - Iran conflict and potential impacts on production [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Bullish, continuing to reduce inventory, with reduced arrivals and improved polyester sales [1] - Short - fiber: Bullish, with costs closely following raw - material prices and planned plant maintenance [1] - Styrene: Bearish, with weakening prices due to reduced speculative demand and increased plant loads [1] - PE: Oscillating and strengthening, with price support from geopolitical factors and crude - oil price increases [1] - PP: Oscillating [1] - PVC: Oscillating and strengthening, with supply pressure and price support from crude - oil price increases [1] - Aluminum Oxide Smelting: Oscillating, with the market anticipating price cuts, and future trends depend on the alumina market [1] - LPG: Oscillating and strengthening, affected by geopolitical factors, suggest waiting and seeing [1] Others - Container Shipping to Europe: Strong expectations but weak reality, suggest short - selling with caution during price - support periods, and light - position long - buying for peak - season contracts, also consider 6 - 8 reverse spreads and 8 - 10, 12 - 4 positive spreads [1]