原油、燃料油日报：原油库存骤降叠加区域价差走阔，短线维持高位博弈-20250619

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil market is in a game period between rapid inventory depletion and weakening marginal demand. Short - term supply is tight, but refinery demand is weakening. The oil price is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term, and SC crude oil may be stronger than the external market, but risks such as inventory inflection points and the return of geopolitical risk premiums should be vigilant [4]. - The supply - demand pattern shows regional differentiation characteristics. Supply - side disturbance factors are intensifying, and demand shows uneven performance. Geopolitical risk premiums are the key support, but the potential intervention of the United States may suppress the upward space of oil prices [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - On June 18, the price of SC crude oil futures rose 5.3% to 552.7 yuan/barrel, with an intraday amplitude of nearly 9.2%. WTI and Brent oil prices remained horizontally consolidated. The cross - market spread changed significantly, and the premium of the Chinese market expanded rapidly, which may be related to shipping premiums and RMB exchange rate fluctuations [2]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories dropped by 1.147 billion barrels in a single week, and Cushing inventories decreased by 995,000 barrels, the largest single - week destocking since April. However, refinery processing demand showed signs of weakness, with a sharp reduction in crude oil imports and a decline in equipment utilization rates, reflecting weak terminal consumption [2]. - The supply - demand pattern is regionally differentiated. On the supply side, Qatar raised the premium of Al - Shaheen crude oil, and the export volume of CPC Blend oil in the Black Sea remained unchanged. On the demand side, Japan's crude oil imports increased year - on - year in May, but the demand for refined oil products in the United States was weak [3]. - Geopolitical risk premiums are the key support, but the potential escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict may trigger U.S. intervention, which may suppress the upward space of oil prices [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring Crude Oil - Futures prices: SC crude oil rose 5.3%, WTI fell 0.85%, and Brent fell 1.44%. Spot prices of various types of crude oil showed different degrees of change, and the spreads between different types of crude oil also changed significantly [6]. - Inventory: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.65%, Cushing inventories decreased by 4.2%, and strategic reserve inventories increased by 0.06%. The operating rate of U.S. refineries decreased by 1.17%, and the crude oil processing volume decreased by 2.11% [6]. Fuel Oil - Futures prices: FU rose 2.65%, LU rose 3.02%, and NYMEX fuel oil rose 0.58%. Spot prices of various types of fuel oil generally increased, and the spreads between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil also increased [7]. - Inventory: The inventory data of some regions and types of fuel oil showed different trends, and the inventories of some types of fuel oil in the United States were not updated [7]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Supply - The EIA's put - into - production crude oil volume and crude oil imports in the United States from June 6 - 13 decreased compared with the previous period. Qatar raised the premium of Al - Shaheen crude oil, and the export volume of CPC Blend oil in the Black Sea in July remained unchanged. Iran may maintain export resilience [8][9]. Demand - The utilization rate of U.S. refinery equipment from June 6 - 13 was lower than expected, and the production of refined oil and gasoline decreased compared with the previous period, indicating weak demand in North America [9]. Inventory - U.S. EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventories, Cushing crude oil inventories, and total crude oil inventories decreased, while refined oil and gasoline inventories increased less than expected [10]. Market Information - Crude - related futures contracts rose, and the market is trading on Middle East geopolitical situations. If the United States is involved in the Israel - Iran conflict, the dollar may fall, and oil prices may also decline [11]. - The price of hot - rolled coil steel stopped falling and rebounded slightly, and the short - term price may fall after a small increase [12]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, U.S. crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, etc., but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [13][15][17]