美联储6月议息会议：观望夏季的潜在通胀风险

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no specific industry investment rating provided for this report [7] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the June 2025 meeting, the Fed unanimously agreed to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.25 - 4.5%. The meeting statement emphasized that the uncertainty of the economic outlook has decreased but remains high. The Fed maintained its forecast of two rate cuts this year, but Powell lacked confidence in this rate forecast due to high uncertainty [3] - The Fed continued to raise inflation expectations and lower growth expectations in the SEP economic forecast. It raised the PCE and core PCE growth rate expectations for the end of 2025 to 3% and 3.1% respectively, increased the unemployment rate forecast to 4.5%, and lowered the real GDP growth rate forecast to 1.4%. The Fed maintained its interest rate forecast, expecting the year - end policy rate to be 3.9%, implying two rate cuts this year [3] - At the press conference, Powell maintained a wait - and - see stance, believing that inflation pressure may still emerge in summer. After the Fed's press conference, U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index rose, and the market priced in a more cautious Fed monetary policy stance [3] - In terms of strategy, the next 2 - 3 months are an important observation window. If inflation does not rise significantly in the next 2 - 3 months, the unemployment rate may rise and the market may price in a higher probability of Fed rate cuts, increasing bond market opportunities from September to the fourth quarter. If inflation rises significantly in the third quarter, the unemployment rate may face less upward pressure, the probability of a wage - inflation spiral increases, and interest rates may remain high or even rise further. The U.S. dollar index may be supported by high interest rate differentials this year [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content 1. Fed Meeting Decisions - The Fed kept the policy rate at 4.25 - 4.5% in the June 2025 meeting and maintained the forecast of two rate cuts this year [3] 2. SEP Economic Forecast Changes - The Fed raised the PCE and core PCE growth rate expectations for the end of 2025 from 2.7% and 2.8% to 3% and 3.1% respectively, increased the unemployment rate forecast from 4.4% to 4.5%, and lowered the real GDP growth rate forecast from 1.7% to 1.4% [3] 3. Powell's Press Conference Stance - Due to high uncertainty, no one has much confidence in the submitted future interest rate path forecasts. Powell emphasized the need to see more actual data and that the Fed needs to maintain high interest rates to suppress inflation. He also mentioned that inflation pressure may appear in summer [3][4] 4. Market Reactions - After the Fed's press conference, U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly, the U.S. dollar index was supported, and the U.S. stock market was under pressure [3][6] 5. Investment Strategy Suggestions - The next 2 - 3 months are a window to observe inflation risks and consumer confidence. Different inflation trends in this period will lead to different market situations and investment opportunities, especially in the bond market and the U.S. dollar index [3]