Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-19 08:56Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term port methanol inventory may accumulate. The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2460 - 2580 yuan/ton. The olefin industry's operation may continue to decline next week [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2543 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is 28 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 909435 lots, up 17514 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 58566 lots, down 6526 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7955, down 1804 [2] 2. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2770 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it is 2000 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton. The East - Northwest price difference is 770 yuan/ton, up 102.5 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is 227 yuan/ton, up 79 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 304 dollars/ton, up 6 dollars/ton; in Southeast Asia, it is 331.5 dollars/ton, up 6.5 dollars/ton. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 279 euros/ton, up 5 euros/ton. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 27.5 dollars/ton, down 0.5 dollars/ton [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.98 dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.11 dollars/million British thermal units [2] 4. Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 43.7 tons, down 3.1 tons; at South China ports, it is 14.94 tons, down 3.48 tons. The methanol import profit is 22.87 yuan/ton, up 25.09 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 78.77 tons, up 31.47 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 367400 tons, down 11700 tons. The methanol enterprise operation rate is 87.98%, down 0.14%. As of June 18, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 36.74 tons, down 1.18 tons, a 3.10% week - on - week decrease; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises are 27.38 tons, down 2.83 tons, a 9.37% week - on - week decrease. As of June 18, the total inventory at Chinese methanol ports is 58.64 tons, down 6.58 tons [2] 5. Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operation rate is 50.89%, down 0.22%; the dimethyl ether operation rate is 7.7%, down 1.82%; the acetic acid operation rate is 95.65%, up 17.78%; the MTBE operation rate is 59.7%, up 4.98%; the olefin operation rate is 88.56%, up 2.08%. The methanol - to - olefin profit on the disk is - 1155 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton. As of June 19, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants is 88.97%, a 0.54% week - on - week decrease [2] 6. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 22.16%, up 0.83%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.01%, up 0.49%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 26.88%, up 1.72%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 26.88%, up 1.7% [2]