瑞达期货多晶硅产业日报-20250619

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply side of polysilicon has all manufacturers operating at reduced loads, but the market's expectation of new capacity launch is increasing. At the current price level, most enterprises are in the stage of losing cash - cost, with production enthusiasm dampened, and some even suspending the production line of deliverable products. The demand side is relatively weak, with downstream photovoltaic module production scheduling adjusted down, silicon wafer enterprises reducing self - regulated quotas, N - type silicon wafer prices and production scheduling declining, and battery enterprises also having production reduction plans. After the "rush - to - install" boom in the terminal market, the wait - and - see sentiment is strong, and the procurement enthusiasm is not high. Overseas photovoltaic market demand is also uncertain due to the unstable macro - economic environment and international trade frictions. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, suppressing market prices. Long - term operations should still focus on short - selling [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 32,720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 650 yuan; the contract spread between July and August is 800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 505 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 27,613 lots, a decrease of 2,822 lots; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 25,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 695 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 35,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of cauliflower - type polysilicon is 29 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of dense - type polysilicon is 30.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of re - feed polysilicon is 31.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.28 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the basis of polysilicon is 2,130 yuan/ton, an increase of 640 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 7,470 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 8,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly output is 299,700 tons, a decrease of 36,050 tons; the total social inventory is 587,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 96,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 954 tons, a decrease of 1,952 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 4.88 US dollars/kg, a decrease of 0.13 US dollars; the monthly average import price is 2,190 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 140 US dollars [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 71,928,000 kilowatts, a decrease of 6,516,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, an increase of 0.01 RMB/W; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 83,789,320 pieces, a decrease of 11,583,800 pieces; the monthly import volume is 20,120,440 pieces, an increase of 10,274,320 pieces; the monthly average import price is 0.29 US dollars/piece, an increase of 0.02 US dollars/piece; the weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 21.67, a decrease of 0.62 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As of June 18, the mainstream market price of P - type cauliflower - type polysilicon is 31 yuan/kg, stable; the mainstream market price of N - type dense - type polysilicon is 34 yuan/kg, stable; the mainstream market price of N - type re - feed polysilicon is 37.5 yuan/kg, stable; the mainstream market price of N - type granular silicon is 34 yuan/kg, stable; the mainstream market price of N - type polysilicon is 34.5 yuan/kg. China's polysilicon imports in May were 793 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 80.5%, and the cumulative imports from January to May were 10,097 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 42.7% [2].