新型烟草行业深度报告：HNB新品迭代、体验加强，渗透率有望加速提升

Investment Rating - The report rates the new tobacco industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The core consumer group for HNB (Heated Not Burned) products consists of traditional smokers aged 25-40 with a demand for smoking cessation or harm reduction, indicating a larger market expansion potential compared to vaping and oral nicotine products [3][19] - Glo Hilo is expected to gain rapid traction in Japan and Europe, benefiting core supplier Smoore [4] - The report highlights Smoore International and Yingqu Technology as core recommended stocks [5][146][151] Market Overview - According to the World Tobacco Development Report and Euromonitor, the HNB market is projected to reach a value of $38.9 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 13%, and a global penetration rate of 6% (excluding China) [6] - In Japan, the HNB penetration rate reached 48% in March 2025, while Italy's rate was 31%, indicating significant growth potential in the U.S. and low-to-middle-income markets [6][34] - The report notes that the HNB market has a stable double-digit growth rate and a concentrated competitive landscape, unlike the more fragmented vaping and oral nicotine markets [23] Competitive Landscape - The report details the competitive dynamics in key markets such as Japan and Italy, where Philip Morris holds a dominant market share of 69.8% in Japan and 82.8% in Italy, with British American Tobacco having significant room to catch up [35] - The U.S. market is highlighted as having potential for HNB growth, with a projected decline in traditional cigarette sales and an increasing acceptance of new smoking methods [42] Product Development and Innovation - The report emphasizes the importance of technological advancements in HNB products, focusing on heating technology, temperature control, and flavor preservation to enhance user experience [6][144] - Major tobacco companies are investing in R&D to improve product performance and user experience, which is expected to facilitate the transition from traditional to new tobacco consumption [6][144] Financial Projections - Smoore International is projected to achieve revenues of 12.89 billion, 15.11 billion, and 17.35 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 1.32 billion, 1.92 billion, and 2.48 billion RMB [146] - Yingqu Technology's IQOS business is expected to show quarterly improvement in 2025, with new products anticipated to drive growth in 2026 [151]