6月美联储议息会议点评：6月FOMC：降息门槛仍高

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5%, aligning with market expectations, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate cut since December last year [7][8]. - The economic outlook has shifted towards a "stagflation" scenario, with GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 being downgraded by 0.3 percentage points and 0.2 percentage points respectively, while unemployment rate forecasts for the same years have been raised by 0.1 percentage points and 0.2 percentage points [7][9]. - The dot plot indicates a more hawkish stance compared to March, with three additional members expecting no rate cuts this year and a reduction in the expected rate cut for 2026 from 50 basis points to 25 basis points [8][9]. Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed a hawkish tone, indicating that while job growth has slowed, the unemployment rate remains low, and both labor supply and demand are decreasing simultaneously [2][13]. - The market reacted to the FOMC decision with rising U.S. Treasury yields and a decline in U.S. stocks, with expectations for a potential rate cut in September and another in December remaining consistent with pre-FOMC predictions [2][13]. - The next rate cut is deemed challenging, as inflation risks remain high and the unemployment rate is expected to rise slowly, suggesting the Fed may prefer to wait for clearer signals rather than act prematurely [3][22]. Group 3 - Inflation is anticipated to face upward pressure during the summer, influenced by tariffs and the delayed transmission of costs to consumers, with the average effective tariff rate expected to rise by 14 percentage points due to ongoing trade conflicts [3][16]. - The unemployment rate is projected to rise slowly, with initial jobless claims in June showing an upward trend, potentially due to seasonal factors related to the academic calendar [4][21]. - Overall, the conditions for a rate cut in September require either a continued decline in inflation or a rapid increase in unemployment, both of which currently appear difficult to achieve [4][22].