Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Silicon iron: On June 19, the 2509 contract closed at 5310, up 0.53%. The production profit of ferroalloys is currently negative, the cost support is weakened by the reduction of settlement electricity price in Ningxia, and the overall steel demand expectation is still weak. The 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as an oscillating operation [2]. - Manganese silicon: On June 19, the 2509 contract closed at 5584, up 0.25%. The manufacturers' production cut has led the operating rate to a low level in the same period, but the overall inventory is still high. The 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as an oscillating operation [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - SM: The closing price of the main contract is 5,584 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan; the contract position is 601,284 hands, down 3,642 hands; the net position of the top 20 is - 38,284 hands, up 346 hands; the 1 - 9 month contract spread is 28 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the warehouse receipt is 95,545 pieces, up 650 pieces [2]. - SF: The closing price of the main contract is 5,310 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the contract position is 430,970 hands, up 9,289 hands; the net position of the top 20 is - 39,191 hands, down 5,326 hands; the 1 - 9 month contract spread is - 50 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; the warehouse receipt is 13,832 pieces, down 1,269 pieces [2]. Spot Market - SM: The price of FeMn68Si18 in Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, and Yunnan is 5,450 yuan/ton, 5,500 yuan/ton, and 5,450 yuan/ton respectively, with no change. The SM index average is 5,423 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The basis of the main contract is - 134 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan [2]. - SF: The price of FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, and Ningxia is 5,260 yuan/ton, 5,130 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan), and 5,230 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan) respectively. The basis of the main contract is - 80 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. Upstream Situation - SM: The price of South African ore (Mn38 block) in Tianjin Port is 31 yuan/ton - degree, with no change. The price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke is 900 yuan/ton, with no change. The manganese ore port inventory is 440.10 million tons, up 19.80 million tons [2]. - SF: The price of silica (98% in the northwest) is 210 yuan/ton, with no change. The price of semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) is 640 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. Industry Situation - SM: The operating rate of manganese silicon enterprises is 35.30%, up 0.27%. The supply is 173,390 tons, up 1,505 tons. The manufacturers' inventory is 195,900 tons, up 9,300 tons. The national steel mill inventory is 15.15 days, down 0.29 days. The demand of the five major steel types is 122,153 tons, down 3,640 tons [2]. - SF: The operating rate of silicon iron enterprises is 31.35%, down 1.43%. The supply is 95,100 tons, down 2,200 tons. The manufacturers' inventory is 69,900 tons, up 2,200 tons. The national steel mill inventory is 15.20 days, down 0.24 days. The demand of the five major steel types is 19,607.80 tons, down 716.90 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.39%, down 0.15%. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.56%, down 0.07%. The monthly crude steel output is 86.545 million tons, up 0.526 million tons [2]. Industry News - In April, China's holdings of US Treasury bonds decreased from 765 billion US dollars in March to 757 billion US dollars; Japan's holdings increased from 1.131 trillion US dollars in March to 1.135 trillion US dollars [2]. - From January to May, the output of industrial raw coal above designated size was 1.99 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.0%. In May, the output was 400 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%, with a daily average output of 1.301 million tons. From January to May, the national coal imports were 189 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9% [2]. - In May 2025, China exported 690,000 cars, a year - on - year increase of 22.2%; from January to May, the cumulative export was 2.85 million cars, a year - on - year increase of 16.8% [2]. - In May, China exported 680,000 tons of coke and semi - coke, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%; from January to May, the cumulative export was 3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.0% [2]. Profit and Operation Suggestions - SF: The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 370 yuan/ton; in Ningxia is - 380 yuan/ton. The 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as an oscillating operation [2]. - SM: The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 120 yuan/ton; in Ningxia is - 260 yuan/ton. The 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as an oscillating operation [2].
瑞达期货锰硅硅铁产业日报-20250619