Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-19 09:08Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Qingdao port's total inventory slightly increased, with the bonded warehouse reducing inventory and general trade accumulating inventory. Downstream factories have low purchasing enthusiasm, and terminal procurement is mainly on - demand, with shipment volume decreasing month - on - month. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises showed mixed trends, with production schedules gradually returning to normal. Some enterprises increased production to meet orders, while a few suspended production due to power plant maintenance. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate is stable. The production schedule of all - steel tire enterprises is stable, and the resumption of production of semi - steel tire enterprises boosts the overall capacity utilization rate. - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,600 - 14,200 in the short term, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,450 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 14,030 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,280 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. - The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 845 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the 7 - 8 spread of 20 - number rubber is 45 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 1,750 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan. - The positions of the main Shanghai rubber contract decreased by 2,926 hands to 153,314 hands, and the positions of the main 20 - number rubber contract decreased by 2,128 hands to 20,539 hands. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber decreased by 1,003 to - 18,207, and the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber decreased by 142 to - 6,004. - Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 170 tons to 192,950 tons, and 20 - number rubber exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 403 tons to 32,659 tons. [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned full - latex in the Shanghai market is 13,950 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 14,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,725 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,725 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 13,850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 13,780 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene - styrene 1502 is 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 12,000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 80 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 160 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,307 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 27 yuan/ton, up 124 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 67.8 Thai baht/kg, up 0.93 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 64.69 Thai baht/kg, up 0.3 Thai baht. - The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 57.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0.55 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber is 47.65 Thai baht/kg, up 0.45 Thai baht. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 132.8 US dollars/ton, up 43.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 61.8 US dollars/ton, up 60.8 US dollars. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 18.68 tons, down 2.93 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 24.87 tons, down 3.29 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 61.24%, down 2.23 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 77.98%, up 4.12 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong decreased by 0.13 days to 41.74 days, and the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong increased by 0.44 days to 46.28 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires decreased by 1.26 million to 11.82 million, and the monthly output of semi - steel tires decreased by 1.24 million to 54.15 million. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 26.97%, up 0.46 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 22.83%, up 0.18 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.47%, up 0.34 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.47%, up 0.36 percentage points. [2] Industry News - From June 15th to June 21st, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, rainfall in most areas was low, which reduced the impact on tapping; in the southern hemisphere, rainfall in most areas was medium - low, which increased the impact on tapping. - As of June 15th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 606,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,400 tons, or 0.23%. Bonded area inventory was 83,900 tons, a decrease of 1.87%; general trade inventory was 522,900 tons, an increase of 0.58%. - As of June 19th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.54%, a month - on - month increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.52 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a month - on - month increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.45 percentage points. [2]