国债期货震荡盘整

1. Core View - Today, Treasury bond futures showed a volatile consolidation trend. The latest macroeconomic data indicates that the economic growth momentum has slowed down, the impact of external tariffs has begun to emerge, and the endogenous momentum of domestic demand is insufficient. In the future, a relatively loose monetary policy is needed to support economic demand. However, in the short term, the policy interest rate was not lowered in June because the effect of the interest rate cut in May remains to be verified. The expectation of an interest rate cut may need to wait for the policy guidance from the Politburo meeting in July and the observation of the monetary policy trends of the overseas Federal Reserve. The possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is relatively low. Overall, Treasury bond futures will remain in a volatile consolidation pattern in the short term [2] 2. Industry News and Related Charts - On June 19, the People's Bank of China announced that it conducted 203.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations through a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method. Both the bid volume and the winning bid volume were 203.5 billion yuan, and the operating interest rate was 1.40%. Data shows that there were 119.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing today, resulting in a net injection of 84.2 billion yuan in the open market [4]