钢材、铁矿石日报：供需格局弱稳，钢矿低位震荡-20250619

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar continued to fluctuate, with a daily increase of 0.13%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. The current situation of weak supply and demand for rebar remains unchanged, with poor fundamentals during the off - season, putting continued pressure on steel prices. However, low inventory levels mean there are few real - world contradictions. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate at low levels, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated at a low level, with a daily increase of 0.13%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, hot - rolled coil supply is stable, but the pressure has not eased. Demand has improved, but its sustainability needs to be tracked. The fundamentals are weakly stable, and prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is that overseas risks are easing. It is expected that the trend will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.43%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. The current pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, the fundamentals of iron ore continue to be weak, and the futures price discount is continuously being repaired. Under the dominance of negative factors, it is expected that iron ore prices will continue to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to changes in hot metal production [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - From January to May 2025, China's excavator production was 140,575 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.9%. In May 2025, the production was 25,845 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.1%. For tractors, in May 2025, the production of large, medium, and small tractors was 7,165 units, 17,451 units, and 11,000 units respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 32.8%, 13.3%, and 8.3%. From January to May 2025, the production of large, medium, and small tractors was 58,725 units, 121,414 units, and 54,000 units respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 2.4%, 8.0%, and 18.2%. Overall, from January to May 2025, the production of major mechanical equipment in China varied. Excavators, metal - cutting machine tools, and metal - forming machine tools had the most obvious production growth, with year - on - year increases of 13.9%, 13.3%, and 11.3% respectively; the production of small tractors decreased significantly, with a year - on - year decrease of 18.2% [6]. - After the end of the air - conditioning cold year, the export production schedule for July decreased by 17.7%. In April, the traditional sales peak season started, and enterprises significantly increased resource investment, leading to a rapid increase in retail data. The 618 promotion started on May 13th, and combined with the trade - in policy, retail data increased again. According to Aowei Cloud Network's aggregated data, in May, air - conditioning retail sales increased by 30.4% online and 27.1% offline. The high retail growth drove the acceleration of enterprise production and a high base in the second quarter. In July 2025, the production schedule for household air - conditioners was 14.31 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. Among them, the domestic sales production schedule was 8.82 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%; the export production schedule was 5.49 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 17.7% [7]. - According to National Bureau of Statistics data, in May 2025, China's crude steel production was 86.545 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%; from January to May, the cumulative crude steel production was 431.631 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. In terms of provincial and municipal data, from January to May 2025, Hebei ranked first with a production of 92.8269 million tons; Jiangsu ranked second with a production of 52.49 million tons; Shandong ranked third with a production of 30.3332 million tons [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,060, 3,200, and 3,219 respectively, with changes of - 10, 0, and - 5. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,190, 3,100, and 3,229 respectively, with changes of - 10, - 10, and - 4. The price of Tangshan steel billet was 2,910 with no change, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,130 with a change of 30. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 130 with no change, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 930 with a change of - 40 [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 710 with a change of 1; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder was 707 with a change of - 3. The freight rates from Australia and Brazil were 9.62 and 25.07 respectively, with changes of - 0.91 and - 0.80. The SGX swap price (current month) was 94.17 with a change of - 0.25, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 92.75 with a change of - 0.35 [9]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 2,986, with a daily increase of 0.13%, a high of 3,002, a low of 2,975, a trading volume of 1,180,366 (a decrease of 146,607), and an open interest of 2,132,733 (a decrease of 1,210) [11]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,103, with a daily increase of 0.13%, a high of 3,120, a low of 3,092, a trading volume of 398,637 (a decrease of 85,432), and an open interest of 1,488,632 (a decrease of 13,154) [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 698.0, with a daily increase of 0.43%, a high of 703.0, a low of 691.5, a trading volume of 392,127 (a decrease of 46,650), and an open interest of 678,221 (a decrease of 6,843) [11]. 3.4 Related Charts The report provides various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes in rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories, total inventories (steel mills + social inventories), national 45 - port iron ore inventories, 247 - steel mill iron ore inventories, domestic mine iron concentrate powder inventories, as well as charts on steel mill production such as the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, proportion of profitable steel mills, independent electric furnace operating rate, and the profit and loss situation of independent electric arc furnace steel mills [13][18][28]. 3.5后市研判 - For rebar, both supply and demand continued to decline. Weekly production decreased by 108,900 tons, and supply continued to contract to the lowest level of the year, leading to inventory reduction and providing support for steel prices. However, due to good profit per ton of the product, the sustainability of production cuts is questionable. Meanwhile, rebar demand continued to weaken seasonally, with weekly apparent demand decreasing by 124,000 tons, and high - frequency daily transactions were lower than normal, both remaining at low levels in recent years. The weak demand pattern remains unchanged, still likely to suppress steel prices. Overall, the situation of weak supply and demand for rebar remains unchanged, with poor fundamentals during the off - season, putting continued pressure on steel prices. However, low inventory levels mean there are few real - world contradictions. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate at low levels, and attention should be paid to demand performance [35]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern continued to weaken. Although mill maintenance led to a decrease in hot - rolled coil production, with a weekly decrease of 41,000 tons, it was still at a high level of the year, and mills mainly focused on protecting plate production, so the supply pressure was difficult to relieve. Meanwhile, hot - rolled coil demand was weakly stable, with weekly apparent demand decreasing by 10,400 tons, and high - frequency transactions rebounded at a low level, mainly due to the high - level production of the downstream cold - rolling industry. However, industrial contradictions were still accumulating, and attention should be paid to the pressure caused by the intensification of contradictions. The relatively positive factor was the progress in China - US trade negotiations and the easing of overseas risks. In short, the supply of hot - rolled coil was stable, the pressure was not relieved, demand improved but its sustainability needed to be tracked, the fundamentals were weakly stable, prices continued to be under pressure, and the relatively positive factor was the easing of overseas risks. It is expected that the trend will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to demand performance [35]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern weakened as expected, and inventory continued to accumulate. During the off - season, steel mill production weakened, and the terminal consumption of ore continued to decline. Last week, the average daily hot metal production and the daily consumption of imported ore of sample steel mills decreased month - on - month, but the decline was relatively limited. Considering the obvious weakening of steel market demand during the off - season, there was still room for further reduction in the future, and the weak demand pattern remained unchanged. Meanwhile, the arrival at domestic ports decreased, and the shipments from overseas miners also decreased but remained at a high level of the year. According to the shipping schedule, the arrival volume was expected to increase again, and the domestic ore supply was weakly stable. Overall, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remained unchanged, the fundamentals of iron ore continued to be weak, and the futures price discount was continuously being repaired. Under the dominance of negative factors, it is expected that iron ore prices will continue to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to changes in hot metal production [36].