【资产配置快评】6月美联储议息会议点评2025年第4期：潜在通胀上行风险的政策约束加强

Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at a range of 4.25%-4.5% during the June meeting, reflecting a more positive outlook on economic uncertainty[6] - The Fed revised down the 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.3% to 1.4% and raised the core PCE inflation forecast by 0.3% to 3.1%[1] - The updated dot plot indicates two potential rate cuts in 2025, with a reduction in expected cuts for 2026 and 2027[2][4] Economic Outlook - The unemployment rate remains low, with the Fed expressing that uncertainty about the economic outlook has diminished but remains elevated[6][8] - The 2025 unemployment rate forecast was adjusted from 4.4% to 4.5%, while the 2026 forecast was also raised to 4.5%[7] Inflation and Tariff Impact - The Fed is vigilant about the transmission of high tariffs to inflation levels, indicating a modestly restrictive monetary policy stance[4][10] - High tariffs are expected to push consumer prices higher, with significant impacts anticipated in the summer as costs are passed down to consumers[9][10] Market Implications - The potential introduction of tariff hedging policies in the second half of the year may benefit U.S. assets, particularly equities, as they catch up with other markets[4][11] - Emerging markets, excluding China, may face increased pressure on corporate earnings and stock valuations unless new economic stimulus measures are introduced[11]