黑色金属日报-20250619

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market is in a state of shock, with varying degrees of changes in supply, demand, and inventory in each sector. Uncertainties remain in the market, and prices are affected by multiple factors such as policies, geopolitics, and raw material prices [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel plate continued to fluctuate today. The apparent demand for thread was stable week - on - week, production increased, and inventory decreased. The demand for hot - rolled coils recovered, production remained high, and inventory declined. The blast furnace still has profits, and the molten iron output remains relatively high, but the off - season carrying capacity is insufficient, and the negative feedback expectation still fermented repeatedly. The overall domestic demand is still weak, the market sentiment is cautious, and the plate fluctuation narrows. The short - term trend is mainly shock [1] Iron Ore - The iron ore plate fluctuated today. The global shipment is in the peak season, and there is an expectation of end - of - season impulse. The domestic arrival volume decreased, but is expected to rebound. The port inventory is expected to stop falling and increase, and the supply pressure increases marginally. The terminal demand is in the off - season, the steel mills still have profits, and the molten iron output is expected to remain relatively high in the short term. The market uncertainty is still strong, and the iron ore is expected to fluctuate [2] Coke - The coke price fluctuated upward during the day. The molten iron output decreased slightly, and there is an expectation of the fourth round of price cuts. The coking profit has shrunk, and the daily coking output has declined from the annual high. The overall coke inventory decreased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders is still low. Affected by the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the coking coal price rebounded, and the coke price is driven by crude oil to some extent [3] Coking Coal - The coking coal price fluctuated upward during the day. The production of coking coal mines continued to decline slightly, and the supply was still restricted. The spot auction market improved slightly at low prices, and the decline in transaction prices slowed down. The terminal inventory continued to decline slightly. The overall coking coal inventory may be destocked, but the rebound space of the coking coal price should not be overly optimistic due to inventory pressure [5] Silicomanganese - Affected by international conflicts, the silicomanganese price fluctuated upward during the day. The tender inquiry price of a large steel mill in the north was 5500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton compared with May. The inventory level decreased due to previous production cuts, but the weekly production began to increase. The manganese ore inventory accumulation speed increased, and the price is under further pressure, but the price - holding intention of manganese mines has increased. The silicomanganese is temporarily bullish in the short term [5] Ferrosilicon - Affected by international conflicts, the ferrosilicon price fluctuated upward during the day. The futures and options trading of ferrosilicon is open to qualified overseas investors. The molten iron output decreased slightly, the export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, and the marginal impact was small. The metal magnesium production increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand remained stable at a high level. The ferrosilicon supply continued to decline, and the market transaction level was average. The inventory decreased slightly. The ferrosilicon is temporarily bullish in the short term [6]