摩根大通：金属周报：铜

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on copper prices, forecasting a decline towards $9,100/mt in Q3 2025 before stabilizing around $9,350/mt in Q4 2025 [2][4]. Core Insights - The tightening of copper fundamentals in 1H25 is attributed to two main factors: increased US imports ahead of potential tariffs and front-loaded demand from China [2][4]. - The report anticipates a payback in 2H25 from these dynamics, leading to a more cautious stance on copper prices for the remainder of the year [2][4]. - Visible copper inventory is described as significantly dislocated and imbalanced, rather than exceptionally tight globally [2][5]. - The US is projected to import approximately 430 kmt of excess refined copper in 1H25, which is expected to lead to a substantial inventory build [2][11]. - The report expects a multi-month de-stocking cycle in the US following the announcement of copper tariffs, which will shift supply dynamics towards Asia [2][13]. - Chinese copper demand growth has been robust at around 7% year-on-year, but is expected to slow in 2H25 due to various headwinds [2][14]. - The report highlights a potential decline in demand from the air conditioning and white goods sectors, as well as a significant slump in solar demand, which could lead to flat or slightly negative overall demand growth in China for 2H25 [2][19][24]. - Despite the anticipated unwind of tightening factors, overall copper supply growth remains constrained, supporting prices above $9,000/mt [2][25]. Summary by Sections US Copper Imports and Tariffs - The report expects a 25% tariff on US imports of refined copper and copper products to be announced by the end of July 2025 [2][27]. - Following the tariff announcement, US imports are expected to drop significantly, leading to a shift in trade flows towards Asia [2][36]. Chinese Demand Dynamics - Chinese copper demand growth is projected to be around 3% for the full year 2025, with a significant slowdown expected in 2H25 [2][14]. - The report notes that while grid demand will remain strong, other sectors such as housing and solar are likely to face challenges [2][19][24]. Price Forecasts - The report provides a quarterly price forecast for copper, estimating $9,100/mt for Q3 2025 and $9,350/mt for Q4 2025 [2][49]. - Overall, the report suggests that absent a severe downturn in the macroeconomic environment, copper prices will remain supported despite the anticipated corrections [2][25].