高盛：调查显示央行购买黄金需求持续，投机性仓位依旧清淡

Investment Rating - The report maintains a long gold trade recommendation, forecasting gold prices to reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4,000 by mid-2026 [3][16]. Core Insights - Amid rising tensions in the Middle East, gold prices are near all-time highs, driven by increased safe-haven demand, although speculative positioning remains low due to investor hesitancy [3][8]. - A World Gold Council survey indicates that 95% of central banks expect global gold holdings to increase over the next 12 months, with 43% planning to increase their own gold holdings, the highest since 2018 [5][10]. - Interest has shifted towards other precious metals like platinum and silver, but these rallies are seen as primarily speculative and lacking fundamental support [9][10]. Summary by Sections Central Bank Demand - The report highlights structurally high central bank demand for gold since the Russian central bank asset freeze in 2022, with major Asian central banks expected to continue strong accumulation for another 3-6 years [10]. - The survey conducted between February 25 and May 20, 2025, included 71 central banks, with none anticipating a reduction in gold holdings [6][15]. Speculative Positioning - Speculative inflows into gold have been muted, with positioning remaining low compared to historical levels, as investors feel they missed the initial rally [3][8]. - In contrast, the silver trade is currently crowded with speculative positioning significantly higher than gold, despite their typical strong correlation [9]. Price Forecast - The report projects that strong central bank buying and increased ETF holdings due to Federal Reserve cuts will drive gold prices higher, with specific targets set for the end of 2025 and mid-2026 [16].