黑色产业数据每日监测-20250619

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Steel futures prices maintain a narrow - range oscillation due to the contradiction between capital games and weak reality, and the raw material side lacks a substantial driving force for a significant rise. The disk lacks directional guidance. The implementation path of the off - season logic is not smooth. The strategy should maintain a bearish stance, and profits should be realized when new lows occur [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - On June 19, the black - series commodity futures generally stabilized. The closing prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore were 2986 yuan/ton, 3103 yuan/ton, and 698 yuan/ton respectively, with the first two rising 0.13% and the latter rising 0.43%. Coke in the coking coal and coke (double - coke) category slightly declined [1]. Market Analysis - Supply: Due to the continuous decline in coal prices, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills slightly dropped to 58.44%, and production cuts were not active. The blast - furnace operating rate of steel decreased by 0.15% to 83.41% week - on - week, and the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.07% to 90.58%. The daily average pig iron output was 241.61 million tons, only 0.19 million tons less than last week, and 2.3 million tons more than the same period last year, with the growth rate narrowing to 0.96%, reaching a new low in more than half a year. For electric - arc furnace steel mills, due to high losses, some cut production or shut down, causing the national independent electric - arc furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate to continue to decline by 2.68% and 1.97% to 74.01% and 56.73% respectively. The daily average crude steel output's week - on - week decline rate widened to 3.36%. The cost - support effect is weakening [1]. - Demand: With steel prices stabilizing, terminal demand has slightly recovered in the short term. However, due to high temperatures, the rainy season, the bottom - building of real - estate data, the US tariff on imported household appliances, and the large pressure on the decline of manufacturing demand, terminal demand is expected to continue to weaken. Although July is a window period for major domestic policy announcements, currently, terminals mainly purchase as needed, and the lag of macro - policy tools leads to the futures market showing the characteristics of strong expectations and weak reality [1]. Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory levels, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - Rebar: Investors are advised to take a short - term oscillatory approach and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to take a short - term high - level consolidation approach and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - Double - coke: Pay attention to the oscillatory market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1].