Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-19 09:57Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Report's Core View - Zinc prices are weakly operating. Downstream consumption is gradually weakening, and due to enterprises' previous low - price purchases, the inventory shipment speed has slowed down, resulting in a rise in domestic social inventories while overseas continues to destock. Technically, the reduction in positions indicates a weakening of short - selling forces. Attention should be paid to the support at the 21,800 mark and the pressure of MA10. It is recommended to wait and see or go short lightly on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 21,865 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 130 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,643.5 dollars/ton, up 7 dollars. The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 264,737 lots, down 230 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 2,348 lots, down 5,084 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 8,595 tons, down 1,094 tons. The SHFE inventory is 45,466 tons, down 1,546 tons, and the LME inventory is 128,250 tons, down 625 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on SMM is 21,990 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market is 21,650 yuan/ton, down 690 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is 125 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is - 30.04 dollars/ton, down 2.03 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,080 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,800 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - WBMS: The zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons. ILZSG: The zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. The global zinc mine production is 1,007,500 tons, down 4,300 tons. The domestic refined zinc production is 576,000 tons, down 39,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4产业情况 - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons, and the export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. The social zinc inventory is 57,100 tons, up 800 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons, and the sales volume is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area is 178.3584 million square meters, up 48.3938 million square meters, and the completed housing area is 156.4785 million square meters, up 25.8758 million square meters. The monthly automobile production is 2.604 million vehicles, down 440,600 vehicles, and the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6期权市场 - The implied volatility of at - the - money zinc call options is 15.62%, down 2.81%, and that of put options is 15.62%, down 2.81%. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.88%, up 0.09%, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 17.26%, up 0.07% [3] 3.7行业消息 - The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50% in June, the fourth consecutive meeting on hold, in line with market expectations. It lowered the 2025 GDP forecast to 1.4% and raised the inflation forecast to 3%. The dot - plot shows two 25 - basis - point rate cuts in 2025 and only one 25 - basis - point cut in 2026, compared with the previous prediction of two cuts. Premier Li Qiang emphasized innovation - driven development, expanding effective demand, and promoting high - quality economic development during a research trip in Jiangsu [3]