豆粕生猪：下游需求较好，基差放量成交

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - DCE soybean meal's main 2509 contract rose 0.49% to 3077 yuan/ton, while coastal oil mills' quotes decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. DCE live hog's main 2509 contract dropped 0.54% to 13760 yuan/ton, and the national average ex - farm price of ternary live hogs was 14.16 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg. Overnight, CBOT US soybeans' main contract fell 0.12% to 1073 cents/bushel [2]. - For soybean meal, the US soybean market is stable, with import costs rising slightly. Domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the downstream demand is good, with strong basis trading. It is expected to remain stable with an upward bias. For live hogs, the market has an oversupply situation, and the rebound space of hog prices is limited, with short - term contracts likely to oscillate at a low level [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overview - DCE soybean meal's main 2509 contract closed at 3077 yuan/ton, up 0.49% or 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Coastal oil mills' quotes decreased 10 - 50 yuan/ton, except for Tianjin which rose 20 yuan/ton to 2980 yuan/ton. DCE live hog's main 2509 contract closed at 13760 yuan/ton, down 0.54% or 75 yuan/ton. The national average ex - farm price of ternary live hogs was 14.16 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg. Overnight, CBOT US soybeans' main contract fell 0.12% to 1073 cents/bushel [2]. 3.2 Main Producing Area Weather - From June 13th, in the US Midwest agricultural main producing areas, there will be scattered to widespread scattered showers in the western region before Sunday. In the southern region, the temperature will be near to above normal before Saturday and above normal from Sunday to next Monday. In the eastern region, there will be scattered showers before Sunday and scattered to widespread scattered showers next Monday. The rainfall in the southern part of the US Midwest has decreased since the middle of this week, and more rainfall may last until Friday and then move eastward. Overall, the weather pattern next week is also active, which is beneficial for soil moisture in the western region but not good for farmers' field operations [4]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - On June 18th, the CNF quotes of imported Brazilian soybeans for August - September shipments were 465 and 473 US dollars/ton, with the arrival and duty - paid costs in South China being 3810 and 3860 yuan/ton respectively, up 50 - 100 yuan/ton from last week. The import cost of US soybeans on June 18th was 4629 yuan, up 5 yuan; that of Brazilian soybeans was 3830 yuan, up 4 yuan; and that of Argentine soybeans was 3682 yuan, down 5 yuan. The total bean meal sales of major domestic oil mills on June 18th were 93.47 million tons, up 71.48 million tons from the previous day. The national dynamic full - sample oil mill operating rate was 69.15%, up 2.07% [5]. - Analysts expect the US soybean production in the 2025 - 2026 season to be 118 million tons, slightly higher than the previous forecast. The expected US soybean export net sales for the 2024/25 market year as of June 12th were between 0 - 40 million tons, and for the 2025/26 market year were 0 - 20 million tons. Rainfall in the prairie region will help relieve drought, and about 40% of the area is experiencing drought. Canada will release a sowing area report on June 27th, and the rapeseed sowing area in March was 21.6 million acres, down 1.7% from the 2024/25 season [6]. - In May 2025, China's cumulative feed production was 27.621 million tons, up 3.68% month - on - month and 7.49% year - on - year, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past four years. As of June 17th, the operating rate of key slaughtering enterprises was 28.23%, up 0.81% from last week, and the frozen meat storage capacity rate was 17.34%, up 0.02% from last week. The number of initial jobless claims in the US in the week of June 14th was 245,000, in line with market expectations. The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50% and is expected to cut interest rates twice in 2025 and 25 basis points each in 2026 and 2027 [6][7]. 3.4 Data Charts - The report includes charts such as the prices of wind soybean meal in Zhangjiagang and DCE soybean meal futures, soybean meal basis, the prices of wind rapeseed meal in Nantong and CZCE rapeseed meal futures, rapeseed meal basis, the prices of wind live hogs in Henan and DCE live hog futures, live hog basis, China's soybean inventory, and China's soybean meal inventory [10][12][14][15]. 3.5 Analysis and Strategies - For soybean meal, the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil has been digested, and the US soybean market is stable. The import cost is rising slightly. The sowing of US soybeans is almost finished, but the excellent - good rate is lower than expected. Domestically, the soybean supply is sufficient, the oil mill operating rate is high, and the soybean meal inventory is rising. With the strengthening of US soybeans, the import cost increases, and the downstream demand is good, with active basis trading. The future focus will be on the US soybean planting area and weather conditions, and it is expected to remain stable with an upward bias [17]. - For live hogs, on the supply side, farmers are accelerating the slaughter of large hogs, but due to heavy rainfall in the south and some second - fattening farmers entering the market, the supply has temporarily shrunk, supporting the hog price. On the demand side, summer heat reduces pork consumption. The overall market still has an oversupply situation, and the rebound space of hog prices is limited. The short - term contracts may oscillate at a low level [17].