Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil remains in a volatile and upward trend, and investors can hold low-cost call options. The spread between SC and Brent is expected to rise [2]. - In the fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil market, the strength order is SOFU > LU, and the cracking spreads of both FU and LU are declining [2]. - The asphalt price follows the upward trend of oil prices, but the increase in production is limited, and the BU cracking spread is under pressure [3]. - The LPG market is in a volatile and upward trend, but there is supply pressure if geopolitical risks ease [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - During the Asian session, international oil prices fluctuated, and the SC08 contract rose 4.7%. The Israel-Iran conflict continues, and the supply risk related to Iran's energy infrastructure and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz remains. Last week, U.S. DOE crude oil inventories decreased by 11.473 million barrels due to increased net exports [2]. Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Oil prices have risen due to geopolitical conflicts, and oil product futures have followed suit but with a smaller increase than crude oil. The Israel-Iran conflict has a geopolitical premium for high-sulfur fuel oil. The demand for high-sulfur fuel oil from shipping bunkering and deep processing is weak, and the demand boost from summer power generation in the Middle East and North Africa is discounted. The supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is still abundant, and the demand for low-sulfur marine fuel is insufficient [2]. Asphalt - The asphalt price has followed the upward trend of oil prices. The increase in production by local refineries lacks resilience, and the increase in asphalt production by major refineries is expected to be limited. The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries has increased month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year has turned positive. The sales volume of road rollers, a leading indicator of asphalt consumption, has increased significantly year-on-year from January to April. As of June 19, the weekly inventory data of refineries and social inventories has continued to decline [3]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is still intensifying, and the risk of production and export from Iran's PQ remains high. The international market is operating strongly. Currently, the domestic chemical demand has rebounded, but attention should be paid to the pressure of falling margins due to rising import costs. The arrival volume in the middle of the month and the release of refinery gas are expected to increase. If geopolitical risks ease, supply pressure will bring a strong downward driving force [4]
国投期货能源日报-20250619
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-06-19 11:06