国投期货软商品日报-20250619

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton, Pulp, Sugar: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/short trend in a relatively balanced state with poor market operability and a suggestion to wait and see [1] - Apple, Natural Rubber, 20 - rubber, Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, representing a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The market has a tight inventory expectation for cotton, while the downstream demand for pure cotton yarn is insufficient. The trend of US sugar is downward, and Zheng sugar is weak. Apple demand enters the off - season, and the market focuses on the new - season yield estimate. For natural rubber, downstream demand is average, supply increases, and inventory rises, with an export performance exceeding expectations. Pulp demand is weak with relatively loose supply. Log supply has certain positive factors, but the price rebound power is insufficient [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zheng cotton maintained a narrow - range shock. Domestic cotton trading was average with a firm - to - strong basis. The positive news from Sino - US negotiations boosted prices, but details remained to be seen. Pure cotton yarn trading was light due to weak downstream demand in the off - season. As of the end of May, the commercial cotton inventory was 345.87 million tons, showing a month - on - month decrease of 69.39 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 31.54 million tons. In May, China imported 4 million tons of cotton, the lowest in the past 10 years. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or go long with a light position on dips [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil's central - southern region, the production data in the second half of May was bearish, with an increase in cane crushing volume and sugar production year - on - year, and a continuous rise in the cane - to - sugar ratio. In June, the rainfall in the main production areas was low, which was conducive to cane harvesting. In China, Zheng sugar fluctuated weakly. In May, China imported 35 million tons of sugar, an increase of 33.31 million tons year - on - year. The import volume increased significantly due to rising import profits and the issuance of licenses. Although Guangxi's sugar production increased this year, the inventory decreased year - on - year due to a fast sales pace. The operation suggestion is to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated weakly. The spot price remained stable. The demand entered the off - season. Although the cold - storage apple inventory was low, the increase in seasonal fruit supply and hot weather reduced apple demand, and the price increase slowed down. The sharp decline in litchi prices also affected apple demand. The market's focus shifted to the new - season yield estimate. The cold wave and strong winds during the flowering period in the western production areas might affect the fruit - setting rate and apple quality, but the impact of low - temperature in April on yield was small, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. The overall flower quantity in the production areas was sufficient, and the yield estimate was relatively bearish. The operation suggestion is to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, Synthetic Rubber - The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged. RU fluctuated, NR rose slightly, and BR rose marginally. The domestic natural rubber spot price generally declined, the synthetic rubber spot price was stable with a slight increase, the overseas butadiene port price was stable, and the Thai raw material market price generally increased. The global natural rubber supply entered the growth period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate continued to decline last week. In May, China's tire exports increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The domestic all - steel tire operating rate continued to decline, while the semi - steel tire operating rate rebounded. The all - steel tire inventory continued to decline, and the semi - steel tire inventory increased. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao rose to 60.7 million tons, the bonded - area inventory decreased, and the general - trade inventory increased. The domestic butadiene rubber social inventory rose slightly to 1.37 million tons, and the upstream butadiene port inventory rose to 2.84 million tons. The strategy is to be bullish [6] Pulp - Pulp futures rose slightly. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing was stable at 6050 yuan/ton, Hebei Wuzhen and Buzhen were quoted at 5250 yuan/ton, and the broad - leaf pulp Star was quoted at 4100 yuan/ton. As of June 12, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 218.5 million tons, a 2.8 - million - ton increase from the previous period, a 1.3% month - on - month increase. In May, China imported 301.6 million tons of pulp, and the cumulative import volume from January to May was 1554.7 million tons, a 2.1% year - on - year increase. The domestic port inventory was high year - on - year, pulp demand was weak, and supply was relatively loose. Pulp valuation was low with strong support near the previous low. The operation suggestion is to wait and see [7] Log - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price remained stable. In June, the log quotation in New Zealand stopped falling and stabilized, and the CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine increased month - on - month. After the increase in foreign quotations, the spot price bottomed out and rose, supporting the futures price. After entering the off - season, the average daily port delivery volume was about 60,000 cubic meters, showing relatively good demand. As of June 13, the total log inventory in national ports was 3.45 million cubic meters, a 60,000 - cubic - meter increase from the previous period. The radiata pine inventory was 2.72 million cubic meters, a 30,000 - cubic - meter decrease. Radiata pine continued to destock, reducing inventory pressure. Although the supply had certain positive factors, the price rebound power was insufficient due to the off - season domestic demand. The operation suggestion is to wait and see [8]