Report Industry Investment Ratings - Equities: Medium - to - long - term upward trend for A - shares, short - term shock and accumulation of strength; rated as "Oscillating Bullish" [1] - Treasury Bonds: Range - bound oscillation; rated as "Range - bound" [1] - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices oscillate bullishly; rated as "Oscillating Bullish" [1][4] - Non - ferrous Metals: Aluminum prices have an upward - moving center of gravity, copper prices move sideways, nickel prices continue to range - bound, and lithium prices trend bearishly; rated as "Oscillating", "Oscillating Bullish", "Range - bound", and "Oscillating Bearish" respectively [4][6] - Silicon Energy: Limited price fluctuation range; rated as "Oscillating" [6] - Steel and Minerals: Short - term shock operation for the black metal sector; rated as "Oscillating" [6] - Coal and Coke: Excess supply situation persists for coal and coke; rated as "Oscillating Bearish" [8] - Soda Ash and Glass: Soda ash is rated as "Bearish", and glass is rated as "Bearish"; the support for glass is gradually stronger than that for soda ash [8] - Crude Oil: High geopolitical premium keeps oil prices high; rated as "Oscillating Bullish" [8] - Methanol: Bullish trend; rated as "Rising" [8][10] - Polyolefins: L - PP spread continues to widen, with potential for futures to fall; rated as "Rising" [10] - Cotton: Bullish sentiment is recommended to be maintained; rated as "Oscillating Bullish" [10] - Rubber: Supply increases while demand decreases; rated as "Oscillating Bearish" [10] Core Views - Equities: Multiple financial measures were announced at the Lujiazui Forum to attract foreign investment, but there is no unexpected domestic policy boost. The market volume is gradually recovering, and the short - term shock is for mid - to - long - term upward movement [1] - Treasury Bonds: The expectation of the central bank restarting bond purchases has been dashed, and the bond market oscillates within a range. Short - term bonds are supported by loose liquidity [1] - Precious Metals: Geopolitical risks lead to high - level oscillation of international oil prices, and the long - term cycle is favorable for gold prices. Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate bullishly [1][4] - Non - ferrous Metals: For aluminum, supply constraints and low inventory support prices; for copper, supply is tight but demand is cautious; for nickel, supply and demand factors are intertwined, resulting in range - bound movement; for lithium, supply pressure is strong, leading to a bearish trend [4][6] - Silicon Energy: Supply and demand changes are small, and high inventory pressure keeps prices weak with limited price fluctuations [6] - Steel and Minerals: For steel products, demand is seasonally weak, but inventory is decreasing, and prices are expected to oscillate at a low level; for iron ore, supply and demand are marginally becoming looser, and prices will move within a narrow range [6] - Coal and Coke: The supply of coal and coke remains in an excess situation, and prices trend bearishly [8] - Soda Ash and Glass: Soda ash supply is temporarily reduced, but demand is weak, and inventory is high; glass demand is expected to be weak, and the supply - demand situation is relatively loose. The support for glass is gradually stronger [8] - Crude Oil: Geopolitical factors maintain a high geopolitical premium for oil prices, and short - term risks of supply interruption are a concern [8] - Methanol: Reduced arrivals and inventory, along with high production profits, make the short - term trend bullish [8][10] - Polyolefins: The increase in PP inventory and new production capacity supports the widening of the L - PP spread, and futures may fall if geopolitical factors fade [10] - Cotton: The domestic supply - demand is expected to be tight, without obvious short - term negative factors, and a long - position strategy is recommended [10] - Rubber: The supply of natural rubber increases while demand decreases, and the upside space for prices is limited [10] Summary by Category Equities - Wednesday, A - shares continued to oscillate narrowly, with the science and technology innovation sector performing strongly. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was about 1.22 trillion yuan. The electronics and communication sectors led the gains, while the finance and real estate sectors declined. The stock index futures rose slightly, and the basis of the far - month contracts of IC and IM decreased slightly. The market is currently in a stage of gradually recovering trading volume, and the short - term shock is for mid - to - long - term upward movement [1] Treasury Bonds - Yesterday, the bond futures oscillated throughout the day. The expectations of the central bank restarting bond purchases were dashed, and the market is waiting for today's meeting. The central bank slightly withdrew liquidity in the open market, but the intention to maintain liquidity is clear, and the short - term bonds are supported by loose liquidity [1] Precious Metals - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are complex, and international oil prices are oscillating at a high level. Debt, the US dollar, inflation and other long - term factors are favorable for gold prices. Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate bullishly, and corresponding investment strategies are recommended [1][4] Non - ferrous Metals - Aluminum: Alumina prices oscillate, and the supply of bauxite is affected by events. The domestic production capacity of aluminum is restricted, and the current inventory is low, so the price center of gravity moves upward [4] - Copper: The Fed maintains interest rates, and the supply of copper mines is tight. The impact of the Israel - Iran conflict on demand and inflation needs attention. The short - term price is affected by market sentiment and funds [4] - Nickel: The supply of nickel ore increases seasonally, but the supply from Indonesia is slow. The supply of nickel iron is loose, and the demand for new energy is limited. The price is affected by both supply and demand factors and moves within a range [4] - Lithium: Although there are policies to support the terminal automobile market, the demand transmission is blocked, and the supply pressure on the lithium salt side increases, so the lithium price trends bearishly [6] Silicon Energy - Supply construction progress changes little, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the high inventory pressure keeps prices weak with limited price fluctuations. It is recommended to hold short - put options [6] Steel and Minerals - Steel Products: The spot price of steel oscillates narrowly, demand is seasonally weak, but inventory is decreasing. The price of steel products is expected to oscillate at a low level [6] - Iron Ore: The reduction of domestic blast furnace production in June is limited, and the supply and demand of iron ore are marginally becoming looser. The price will move within a narrow range [6] Coal and Coke - Coking Coal: Affected by the safety production month, coal production is restricted, but inventory is accumulating. Steel and coke enterprises reduce production, and the long - term excess situation is difficult to change [8] - Coke: After continuous price cuts, coke enterprises' profitability is weak, and environmental inspections affect production. The supply and demand of coke are in a double - weak pattern, and the price continues to bottom out [8] Soda Ash and Glass - Soda Ash: Production decreases temporarily, but demand is weak, and inventory is concentrated in upstream enterprises. It is recommended to hold short positions or conduct arbitrage operations [8] - Glass: Demand is expected to be weak, and supply is relatively loose. It is recommended to hold short positions or conduct arbitrage operations based on the expectation of glass factory cold repairs [8] Crude Oil - Geopolitical factors may lead to the escalation of the Middle East situation, affecting oil production and exports. US crude oil inventory has decreased significantly, and the short - term oil price is supported by geopolitical premiums [8] Methanol - Methanol arrivals and inventory have decreased, production profits are high, and the short - term trend is bullish [8][10] Polyolefins - The inventory of PE decreases slightly, while the inventory of PP increases due to increased production. The L - PP spread continues to widen, and futures may fall if geopolitical factors fade [10] Cotton - The cotton in Xinjiang is in the full - bud stage, and the current supply - demand in China is expected to be tight. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [10] Rubber - The impact of rising oil prices on synthetic rubber is weakening. The supply of natural rubber increases while demand decreases, and the price upside is limited [10]
日度策略：原油、甲醇仍有向上驱动，焦煤继续承压-20250619
Xing Ye Qi Huo·2025-06-19 11:25