10年地方债换手率抬升

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the supply and trading of local government bonds, covering aspects such as the stock market overview, primary supply rhythm, and secondary trading characteristics [11]. Group 2: Stock Market Overview - As of June 13, 2025, the outstanding local government bond balance reached 51.1 trillion yuan, with new special bonds accounting for over 43% and refinancing special bonds accounting for 21% [11]. - Among the special bonds with clear funding uses, the top three investment areas are shantytown renovation, park and new district construction, and rural revitalization, with outstanding balances of 1.96 trillion, 1.57 trillion, and 1.12 trillion yuan respectively [11]. - As of June 13, 2025, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong had the largest local government bond balances, at 3.39 trillion, 3.28 trillion, and 3.1 trillion yuan respectively [11]. Group 3: Primary Supply Rhythm - Last week (June 9 - 13, 2025), local government bonds worth 107.785 billion yuan were issued, including 7.072 billion yuan in new special bonds and 40.007 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds [19]. - As of June 13, 2025, the issuance of special refinancing special bonds in June had reached 107.094 billion yuan, accounting for 22.35% of the monthly local government bond issuance [19]. - In terms of the issuance term structure, the issuance of 7 - 10 - year local government bonds accounted for a relatively high proportion last week, at 47.28%. The average coupon rates of major - term local government bonds were basically the same as two weeks ago [29]. - The spread between the issuance rate of 30 - year local government bonds and the same - term treasury bonds narrowed to 21.71BP, and the spread of 20 - year local government bonds over the same - term treasury bonds remained at 13.9BP [29]. - From the perspective of new bond subscriptions, the upper limit of the bid rate last week decreased compared to two weeks ago, and the primary auction sentiment turned sluggish [29]. - Last week, six provinces had new issuances. Tianjin had the largest new local government bond issuance this month, at 43.427 billion yuan, with terms mainly concentrated in 10 - 20 years and 20 - 30 years. The terms of other provinces were mainly concentrated in 7 years and below and 7 - 10 years. Except for Tianjin, the issuance rates of other provinces were below 2% [37]. Group 4: Secondary Trading Characteristics - Since mid - to - late March this year, the yield of local government bonds has been in a continuous downward trend. As of June 13, 2025, the yield of 10 - year local government bonds was 1.84%, with a spread of 19.6BP over the same - term treasury bonds, at the 61% quantile in the past 24 years. The price difference quantiles of 15 - year and 30 - year varieties were 70% and 78.1% respectively [39]. - Last week, the turnover rates of major - term local government bonds increased. The 10 - year - plus variety had the highest weekly turnover rate, at 1.38% [44]. - In terms of regions, Jiangsu, Shandong, Guangdong, Sichuan, and Zhejiang had more trading volumes last week, with over 100 transactions each [44]. - Last week, the average trading term of local government bonds was 16.08 years, and the average yield was 1.96% [44]. - In terms of the investor structure, commercial banks, insurance companies, securities proprietary trading, and broad - based funds were the most active institutions in local government bond trading. Insurance companies remained the main undertaker of local government bond supply, with a total net purchase of local government bonds worth 28.701 billion yuan, of which the purchase of 20 - 30 - year - plus varieties accounted for 62.62%. In addition to insurance companies, funds had a net purchase of 10.999 billion yuan, and wealth management products had a net purchase of 15.943 billion yuan [45].