有色日报：午后铜价下行-20250619

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper: The price of Shanghai copper declined in the afternoon. The rebound of the US dollar index and the slight increase in the social inventory of electrolytic copper on Thursday put pressure on the copper price. The short - term price dropped, and attention should be paid to the technical support at the previous price center of 78,000 [5]. - Aluminum: The aluminum price showed a weak shock in the afternoon, and the monthly spread continued to decline. The good domestic macro - atmosphere and the strong performance of the black sector provided support. The continuous destocking of electrolytic aluminum and good domestic demand also supported the price. The price may continue to rise strongly, and attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6]. - Nickel: The nickel price fluctuated below 119,000, with little change in the position. It has been weak in the non - ferrous sector since last week due to industrial and news factors. The price shows signs of stabilizing in the short term, and attention should be paid to the technical pressure at 120,000 [7]. 3. Industry Dynamics - Copper: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative copper product output was 9.537 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. The top three provinces in terms of output were Jiangxi, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu. Chile's Potrerillos copper smelter is expected to resume operation at the end of July [9]. - Aluminum: In May 2025, China's alumina output was 748,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%; the cumulative output from January to May was 3.7401 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. The electrolytic aluminum output in May was 382,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%; the cumulative output from January to May was 1.859 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.0% [10]. - Nickel: On June 19, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the Shanghai nickel 2507 contract. The prices of different types of nickel were provided, such as the price of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was 121,480 yuan/ton [10]. 4. Related Charts - Copper: The report includes charts of copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic explicit inventory, LME copper注销仓单比例, copper monthly spread, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [11][13][14]. - Aluminum: There are charts of aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [23][25][27]. - Nickel: Charts of nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME nickel inventory, SHFE nickel inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory are provided [36][38][40].