2025年铂钯期货半年度行情展望：需求回暖驱动铂金走强，钯金过剩格局延续

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the supply growth rate of platinum is -0.4%, and the demand growth rate is 10.8%, resulting in a supply-demand gap of 41.2 tons. The supply growth rate of palladium is -1.7%, and the demand growth rate is -8.6%, with a supply surplus of 6 tons. Platinum prices are expected to strengthen oscillatingly, while palladium may continue to face pressure [3][53]. - In the automotive sector, the mid - term demand for platinum - group metals is mainly supported by PHEV. Platinum is expected to increase by 3 - 5% in the automotive sector in 2025, while palladium demand is expected to decline by less than 1%. [3][52][53] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. 2025 H1 Platinum and Palladium Price Trends Review - As of June 16, 2025, Nymex platinum prices rose 36.25%, and palladium rose 15.01%. In Q1, prices oscillated weakly due to uncertain US tariff policies and heavy rainfall in South African mines. In Q2, prices recovered after hitting bottom, affected by trade frictions, tariff alleviation, and gold - platinum ratio changes [6]. 2. 2025 H2 Platinum and Palladium Fundamental Market Analysis 2.1 Supply Side - 2.1.1 South African Extreme Weather Hit Global Platinum and Palladium Supply, Oligopoly Couldn't Hide Short - term Vulnerability - Global primary platinum and palladium production is highly concentrated. South Africa, Zimbabwe, Russia, and the US account for 96% of global production. The top four mining companies' market share exceeds 70% for platinum and over 80% for palladium [12]. - In Q1 2025, platinum mine supply dropped 13% year - on - year to 34 tons. South African heavy rainfall, low smelting capacity utilization in Zimbabwe, and North American mine restructuring led to the decline. Although production in South Africa recovered in Q2, long - term challenges may limit output. The annual platinum supply is expected to be 3.869 million ounces, down 6.38% year - on - year [17][19]. - 2.1.2 Recycled Supply Kept Growing, with Scrap Auto Catalysts Contributing the Main Increment - Recycling accounts for 20 - 25% of the total platinum and palladium supply. Scrap auto catalysts contribute 70 - 75% of the recycled supply. The "scrap - for - new" policy and high platinum content in old cars are expected to accelerate scrap recycling in H2 2025, but some dismantlers' hoarding may suppress supply [24][26]. - In H1 2025, platinum jewelry consumption recovered, which may drive the recycling market. However, due to low inventory, the annual recycling volume may still decline [31]. 2.2 Demand Side - 2.2.1 Automotive Sector Platinum and Palladium Demand Grew Moderately - 2.2.1.1 In terms of total volume, the global automotive production's platinum and palladium demand was revised down, affected by demand overdraft and tariff shocks - In 2025, global automobile production is expected to be about 92 million units, a slight decline of less than 1% year - on - year. In the Chinese market, demand overdraft and inventory pressure may affect production and platinum - palladium demand. In overseas markets, tariffs and weak macro - economy may also impact demand [36]. - 2.2.1.2 Structurally, mid - term demand is mainly supported by PHEV - The mid - term demand for platinum - group metals in the automotive sector is mainly supported by PHEV. In H1 2025, the PHEV market share reached 15.89%, up about 3 percentage points from the previous year. As other manufacturers follow up on PHEV technology, the market share may further increase. Platinum is expected to increase by 3 - 5% in the automotive sector in 2025, while palladium demand is expected to decline by less than 1% [43][44]. - 2.2.2 Jewelry Sector Platinum and Palladium Demand Grew Rapidly, with Gold - Platinum Substitution Driving Up Expectations - In 2025, global platinum jewelry demand is expected to grow about 15%. The high gold price has made platinum jewelry more attractive. In the Chinese market, new platinum showrooms and counters have emerged. In the Japanese market, demand is expected to grow steadily, while in India, growth may slow due to US tariff policies [49].