经济动态跟踪：“国补”继续下的消费后劲

Funding and Policy Overview - The recent pause in the "National Subsidy" ("国补") program was due to the rapid consumption of subsidy funds, which outpaced the issuance of special government bonds[1] - A total of 1,380 billion yuan in central funds will be distributed in batches during the third and fourth quarters, focusing on the implementation of existing funds rather than increasing the 3,000 billion yuan quota[1][4] - As of the end of May, approximately 1,620 billion yuan of the subsidy funds had been allocated, with over half of the expected funds consumed in the first five months[2][3] Impact on Consumer Spending - The "trade-in" subsidy program has significantly boosted retail sales, with May's total retail sales exceeding the trend value by approximately 2.8 percentage points[5] - The year-on-year growth rate for "trade-in" categories in May reached 16.6%, compared to an overall retail sales growth of 8.2%[5][6] - However, due to the rapid consumption of subsidy funds, the growth rate of retail sales may experience downward fluctuations in the coming months[5] Future Considerations - The "trade-in" policy needs to be strengthened in terms of quantity to prevent a decline in consumer momentum, as non-"trade-in" categories only saw a year-on-year growth of 1.6% in May[6] - There is a need for further improvement in policy mechanisms to reduce unfair competition caused by differences in subsidy standards and regional disparities[6] - Risks include potential policy shortcomings, unexpected changes in the domestic economic situation, and fluctuations in exports[6]