策略日报：调整-20250619

Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market shows short-term rates nearly flat while long-term rates have slightly increased. The report suggests that the stock market's low volatility and weak fundamentals will limit upward potential, indicating a likely downward adjustment in volatility. Future inflows into bonds may be driven by risk-averse capital due to escalating geopolitical conflicts [16][7]. Group 2: A-Share Market - The A-share market experienced a decline, with the ChiNext index dropping by 1.36%. The total trading volume was 1.28 trillion, a slight increase of 0.08 trillion from the previous day. Only 689 stocks rose while 4,402 fell. The report emphasizes that weak fundamentals and low volatility reduce the likelihood of a bullish market, suggesting investors consider reallocating to lower-risk sectors such as dividends and agriculture [18][21]. Group 3: U.S. Stock Market - The U.S. stock market remains in a state of fluctuation, with the Federal Reserve maintaining the federal funds rate. The report notes that rising inflation pressures could lead to a downturn, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.1% and the S&P 500 by 0.03%. The report advises caution and suggests waiting for better buying opportunities as the market may be undergoing a second adjustment [23][9]. Group 4: Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1913, an increase of 55 basis points from the previous close. The report indicates that the RMB is expected to strengthen further, potentially reaching around 7.1, driven by favorable trade conditions between China and the U.S. [26][10]. Group 5: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index rose by 0.67%, with oil, polyester, and coal chemical sectors leading gains, while precious metals and grains declined. The report suggests a cautious approach due to high volatility in oil prices, but optimistic investors may consider light positions in commodities as technical indicators show signs of stabilization [29][11]. Group 6: Important Policies and News - Domestic policies include an upgrade to the "production reduction order" in the photovoltaic sector, with a projected 10-15% decrease in operating rates. The Ministry of Commerce is expediting the review of rare earth export licenses, and the financial regulatory authority has issued guidelines to prevent excessive competition in dividend insurance [34][32]. Group 7: International News - Internationally, North Korea has launched over ten rocket artillery rounds, and Japan plans to reduce the issuance of ultra-long-term bonds starting July. Additionally, U.S. officials are preparing for potential military actions against Iran, indicating heightened geopolitical tensions [33][36].