债市收益率逼近前低时建议止盈

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The bond market yield is expected to challenge the previous low, but it is difficult to break through. It is recommended to stop profit when approaching the key point. Specifically, it is suggested to allocate 10-year treasury bonds around 1.65% when there is an adjustment, and stop profit appropriately when approaching the key point of 1.6%. From a static perspective, attention can be paid to the allocation value of the 20-year treasury bond yield [2][6][25]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Bond Market Yield Expected to Challenge the Previous Low - After a long period of credit expansion, the growth rate of social financing may be gradually peaking. It is expected that the growth rate of social financing will reach the annual high of about 9.0% from July to August, and then gradually decline to about 8.3% by the end of the year. The issuance of special refinancing bonds has a significant substitution effect on new RMB loans, and there is still about 40 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds to be issued this year, and its substitution effect on credit is expected to continue for some time [6][12]. - In June this year, the central bank's support brought abundant liquidity and a decline in the short end of the bond market, which made the long-term bonds not adjust deeply, and the bond market often rushes ahead in June. Under the loose capital situation, institutions generally continue the "rushing ahead" strategy of previous years, and the inter-bank leverage ratio has been rising, reaching 108.2% as of June 17. Historical experience shows that the bond market rush - ahead market is often triggered after the cross - quarter capital pressure is released [6][18]. The Previous Low Can Be Challenged but Difficult to Break Through, and It is Recommended to Stop Profit When Approaching the Key Point - The bond market is insensitive to small changes in the fundamentals. Firstly, in the context of high - quality development, the improvement of total factor productivity has increased its contribution to economic growth, reducing the demand for financing in economic growth. Since 2020, the multiple of nominal economy supported by unit social financing has increased from about 3 times to about 4.2 times in 2024. Secondly, considering the bond market valuation, at the current relatively low absolute level, a greater valuation increase is required for the interest rate to decline, making the bond market less sensitive to general weakening of the fundamentals [6][19]. - The restart of treasury bond trading is possible, but the time is not clear, and the probability of restarting when the bond market approaches the previous low may not be high. If the central bank restarts treasury bond trading, referring to the market from December 20 to December 25 last year, the yield of 1 - year treasury bonds can break through 1% at the lowest, which may directly drive the yield of long - term bonds to break below 1.6%, deviating from the current relatively desirable bond market yield level [6][24].