Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures market will be in a state of shock and consolidation, and the bond futures market should be mainly operated with a light - position and low - long strategy [5][9][10] Group 3: Summary by Sections 1. Financial News - China is fully prepared to join the CPTPP and will actively align with international high - standard economic and trade rules [3] - China is accelerating the review of rare earth export license applications and has approved a certain number of compliant applications [3] - The central bank conducted 203.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on June 19, with a net investment of 84.2 billion yuan [3] - The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, in line with market expectations [4] 2. Investment Logic Stock Index Futures - On Thursday, the stock index fluctuated and declined. The Shanghai Composite 50 Index fell 0.54%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.82%, the CSI 500 Index fell 1.2%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.42%. The total market turnover was 1.28 trillion yuan [5] - Stock index futures fell across the board. The basis showed differentiation, with the discounts of IF and IH slightly expanding, and the discounts of IM and IC converging. The trading volume and positions of IM, IC, IF, and IH all increased [5] - After continuous shocks, the market declined again. The sharp adjustment in the Hong Kong stock market and the decline of popular concepts in the A - share market have led to a decrease in risk appetite and a setback for the bullish force. The market will remain in shock and consolidation [5] Financial Options - Most option underlying prices fluctuated lower during the day, and the trading volume of most option varieties rebounded. The 500ETF option was relatively active in trading [6] - The actual volatility of the underlying and the implied volatility of options showed a double - low pattern. The market sentiment was cautious, and the willingness to short volatility was weak. It is recommended to take appropriate profit - taking on short - volatility positions [7] Treasury Futures - On Thursday, most treasury futures closed down. The spot bond yields mostly rose slightly. The bond market continued to fluctuate, and the yield was blocked from further decline [8][9] - The current fundamentals do not support a reversal in the bond market, and the market adjustment space is limited. It is recommended to take a neutral - to - bullish approach. Consider short - term long positions in TS contracts and pay attention to potential cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities [9] 3. Data Chart Presentation - The report presents a series of data charts, including the trading volume and position changes of stock index futures and treasury futures, basis changes, the changes in south - bound funds, margin trading balances, option implied volatility, and various interest rate data [11][12][13][14][15][16][17][19][20][21][22][23][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][33][34][35][37][38][39][41][43]
金融衍生品日报-20250619
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-06-19 13:42