农林牧渔行业2025半年度投资策略:养殖风起,后周期顺势而上
ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-06-19 13:52

Group 1: Swine Industry - The supply pressure for swine in 2025 is expected to be significant, with the breeding sow inventory projected to peak at 40.8 million heads in November 2024 before gradually declining [11][14] - The average weight of swine at market is increasing, with the industry average reaching 130 kg as of May 2023, up from 126 kg in the previous year, indicating a trend towards heavier market weights [11] - Recommendations for investment include companies such as Dekang Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, and Wens Foodstuffs, which are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions and price recovery [18] Group 2: Poultry Industry - The white feather chicken supply is anticipated to remain robust, with breeding stock levels expected to reach historical highs, ensuring sufficient capacity for 2025-2026 [25] - Enhancing consumer demand for white feather chicken is crucial, with a focus on developing new consumption scenarios such as frozen foods and prepared dishes [35] - The yellow feather chicken sector is currently facing significant losses, with cost control being a critical factor for profitability, particularly for companies like Lihua Agricultural [36][39] Group 3: Feed Industry - The demand for pig feed is expected to gradually improve in 2025, driven by the recovery of breeding sow inventory and favorable profit margins in the breeding sector [42] - Companies like Bangji Technology and Hefeng Co. are highlighted as key players in the pig feed market, with potential for profitability recovery [42] Group 4: Animal Health Industry - The traditional animal health market is recovering slowly, with increased demand for vaccines and medications as breeding enterprises return to profitability [56] - The pet healthcare market is emerging as a new growth area, with domestic brands expected to gain market share as consumer awareness increases [62] Group 5: Seed Industry - The traditional seed market is facing intense competition, with oversupply leading to price declines and a potential shakeout of smaller companies [72] - The focus on genetically modified crops is expected to accelerate, with significant growth opportunities for leading companies in this space, such as Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [77]