Guohai Securities·2025-06-19 15:36Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the tire industry, indicating a positive outlook on the industry's fundamentals and performance relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [1]. Core Insights - The European Union has initiated an anti-dumping investigation against Chinese semi-steel tires, which could lead to increased tariffs on exports to the EU, potentially benefiting Chinese tire manufacturers with overseas bases [3][4]. - Chinese tire companies are expanding their overseas production bases, particularly in response to high tariffs imposed by the U.S., which may lead to increased market share in North America and Europe [5][6]. - The high-end market for tires remains largely untapped, and successful penetration into this segment could enhance profitability and mitigate low-end competition [8]. Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The basic chemical industry has shown a mixed performance over the past year, with a 7.6% increase over 12 months, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index has increased by 8.9% [2]. Market Opportunities - The EU's investigation into anti-dumping practices could create strategic opportunities for Chinese tire manufacturers, as it may shift demand towards their overseas production bases [5][6]. - Current production capacity for semi-steel tires in overseas bases is approximately 171 million units, expected to reach 260 million units by 2027, with significant demand projected in North America and Europe [5]. Competitive Landscape - China is the largest source of imported passenger car tires in Europe, with a 24.63% market share in 2024, indicating strong competitive positioning [6][10]. - Trade tensions have accelerated the shift of tire production capacity overseas, with a notable decline in exports to the EU since 2017 [7]. Company Focus and Profitability Forecast - Key companies to watch include Sailun Tire, Senqcia, Linglong Tire, and others, with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth and favorable price-to-earnings (PE) ratios indicating strong investment potential [9].