工业硅、多晶硅日评：低位整理-20250620

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The silicon market is experiencing weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure. Silicon prices are expected to remain under pressure in the short - term but have limited downside potential as they are already at a low level. For polysilicon, the fundamentals are weak, and prices are unlikely to show an upward trend in the short - term, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds recommended [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - Prices: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) average price also remained unchanged at 8,700 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price rose 0.61% to 7,470 yuan/ton. The basis (East China 553 - futures main) decreased by 45 yuan to 630 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: On June 19, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 55.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3 million tons. Social ordinary warehouses had 13.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.2 million tons, and social delivery warehouses had 42.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons [1]. - Supply and Demand: In terms of supply, some northern silicon enterprises reduced production due to cost - price inversion, and southwest producers were hesitant to resume production. In terms of demand, polysilicon enterprises continued to cut production, organic silicon enterprises had a strong willingness to cut production to support prices but faced weak demand, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased as needed [1]. Polysilicon - Prices: N - type dense material dropped 2.90% to 33.5 yuan/kg, polysilicon re - feed material fell 3.08% to 31.5 yuan/kg, polysilicon dense material decreased 4.76% to 30.0 yuan/kg, and polysilicon cauliflower material declined 3.39% to 28.5 yuan/kg. The futures main contract closing price dropped 1.95% to 32,720 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply and Demand: Supply - side, silicon material enterprises continued to cut production, but some may add new capacity, with an expected slight increase in output. Demand - side, the photovoltaic market was weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials, and falling prices of silicon wafers, cells, and components [1]. Other Related Products - Silicon Wafer Prices: N - type 210mm decreased 0.79% to 1.26 yuan/piece, N - type 210R dropped 0.94% to 1.05 yuan/piece, N - type 183mm fell 1.10% to 0.90 yuan/piece, while P - type 210mm and P - type 182mm remained unchanged [1]. - Cell Prices: The price of single - crystal PERC cells M10 - 182mm remained at 0.27 yuan/watt [1]. - Component Prices: The prices of single - crystal PERC components (single - sided 182mm, single - sided 210mm, double - sided 182mm, double - sided 210mm) remained unchanged [1]. - Organic Silicon Prices: DMC dropped 1.41% to 10,500 yuan/ton, 107 glue decreased 0.42% to 11,800 yuan/ton, and silicone oil fell 0.37% to 13,600 yuan/ton [1]. Industry News - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association's meeting this week focused on "production limitation to maintain prices." Photovoltaic enterprises are expected to cut production more significantly in the third quarter, with the开工 rate expected to drop by 10% - 15%. A strict policy against "below - cost sales" will be implemented, and product sales with sub - standard quality will be rectified [1].