尿素：短期转为震荡格局

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of urea has turned into a shock pattern. The international urea price has rebounded significantly due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflict since last Friday, and the domestic speculative sentiment has strengthened, leading to a short - term rebound in the spot price. The domestic urea enterprise inventory has decreased this cycle, but the overall de - stocking is limited. The spot price is expected to be stable in the short term, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate within a range temporarily. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the sustainability of the increase in domestic export flow driven by high international urea prices, the transmission strength of exports to spot transactions, and export policy adjustments [2][3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,780 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,781 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the trading volume was 266,861 lots, a decrease of 99,349 lots; the open interest of the 09 contract was 249,205 lots, a decrease of 12,128 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 3,881 tons, a decrease of 484 tons; the turnover was 9.50292 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.56531 billion yuan. The basis in Shandong area increased by 19, the basis of Fengxi - disk increased by 9, and the basis of Dongguang - disk increased by 9. The spread between UR09 and UR01 increased by 2 [1]. - Spot Market: The factory prices of Henan Xinlianxin, Yankuang Xinjiang, Shandong Ruixing, Shanxi Fengxi, and Hebei Dongguang remained unchanged. The price of Jiangsu Linggu increased by 30 yuan/ton. The trading price in Shandong area increased by 10 yuan/ton, and that in Shanxi area remained unchanged. The operating rate was 87.55%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points, and the daily output was 201,310 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons [1]. 2. Industry News - Since last Friday, the international urea price has rebounded significantly due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, and the domestic speculative sentiment has strengthened, leading to a short - term rebound in the spot price. On June 18, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.136 million tons, a decrease of 41,100 tons from last week, a year - on - year decrease of 3.49%. The domestic urea enterprise inventory has decreased this cycle, and the recent urea port collection volume has increased. The international regional conflict has led to an increase in domestic and foreign urea prices, driving the release of domestic agricultural demand and an increase in the shipment volume of urea factories. However, some regional enterprises have a trend of increasing inventory, and the overall de - stocking of urea is limited. The spot trading has weakened for two consecutive days, and the domestic sales flow rate of traders is slow. The downstream is slightly resistant to the price around 1,800 yuan/ton. But considering that the previous factory orders were relatively sufficient, the spot price is expected to be stable in the short term. The futures market has entered a waiting period. Under the background of weak domestic demand and strong exports, it is expected to fluctuate within a range temporarily. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the sustainability of the increase in domestic export flow driven by high international urea prices, the transmission strength of exports to spot transactions, and export policy adjustments [2][3]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral view [3].