LLDPE：短期偏强

Report Industry Investment Rating - LLDPE short-term outlook is bullish [1] Core Viewpoints - The conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified, causing a sharp rise in crude oil prices, leading to a short-term volatile and bullish trend in polyethylene prices. Future polyethylene imports from Iran may be disrupted. The supply pressure of PE remains high in 2025, while the demand is in a downward trend. The demand from downstream factories is insufficient to drive significant destocking of polyethylene. Attention should be paid to the spread between low-pressure and linear polyethylene, and the possible capacity switch between HDPE and LLDPE may relieve the supply pressure of LLDPE [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The closing price of L2509 futures was 7462, with a daily increase of 0.96%, trading volume of 432,373, and an increase in open interest of 2116. The 09 contract basis was -82, and the 09 - 01 contract spread was 63. The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 7380 yuan/ton, 7450 yuan/ton, and 8550 yuan/ton respectively [1] Spot News - The domestic PE market fluctuated upwards this week. Due to the escalation of the Middle East situation, the crude oil price rose continuously. The market was bullish on LDPE, and its price increase was more significant than that of LLDPE and HDPE. Although the quotations of petrochemical companies and traders increased, the factory orders did not follow up well, and the market trading volume did not increase [1] Market Condition Analysis - In 2024, Iran's polyethylene imports accounted for 9.6% of the total imports. In 2025, the new production capacity of domestic PE plants on the 09 contract is expected to be 2.05 million tons. The maintenance in June is not enough to change the high - production pattern. The demand for agricultural films is in the off - season, and the overall operating rate has decreased by 0.5%. The demand for packaging films is average, and the operating rate has decreased by 0.45%. The HD - LL spread has widened, and there is a possibility of capacity switch between HDPE and LLDPE. Some plants have already started to switch production [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 1, indicating a relatively bullish trend [4]