烧碱：现货承压，趋势偏弱

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is -1, indicating a weak outlook. The range of trend strength is from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish), and the classification includes weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong [5]. Core Viewpoints - The pattern of high profit and high output will always affect caustic soda, and shorting caustic soda profit will become an annual - level strategy and the main logic. Weiqiao's continuous reduction of procurement prices, combined with the slowdown of downstream and traders' inventory - building demand when there is an expectation of spot price cuts, intensifies the negative market feedback. Also, the rapid decline of spot prices increases the pressure on near - month long - position holders to take delivery, and the logic of near - month premium compensation is difficult to support the market [3]. - Although the profit may be continuously compressed, caustic soda still has room for rebound. In the past three years, there have been profits of over 1,000 yuan/ton during seasonal peak seasons, mainly due to the huge price elasticity caused by short - term supply - demand mismatches of liquid chemicals [3]. - In the second half of the year, focus on inventory - building in the alumina and export directions, and the pre - stocking during the "Golden September and Silver October" in non - aluminum sectors. When the national sample inventory is below 300,000 tons, caustic soda is prone to shortages [3]. - The future trend of caustic soda will show a large futures discount structure, which makes it difficult for manufacturers to hedge. Eventually, the futures will compensate for the premium near the delivery date and then continue to face pressure. In the case of weak demand expectations, the current logic of shorting profit cannot be disproven. However, at the absolute valuation level, low prices will stimulate downstream inventory - building, and seasonal demand still exists, so one can participate in the positive spread at the right time, with the core being to focus on the downstream inventory - building rhythm [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On June 20, 2025, the futures price of the 09 contract was 2,288. The price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 830, the converted futures price of Shandong's 32% caustic soda spot was 2,594, and the basis was 306 [1]. Spot News - Since June 20, the procurement price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong has been reduced by 20 yuan/ton, with the ex - factory price set at 780 yuan/ton [2]. Market Condition Analysis - The high - profit and high - output pattern affects caustic soda, and shorting profit is the main strategy. Weiqiao's price cuts and the slowdown of inventory - building demand lead to negative market feedback, and the near - month premium compensation logic is weak [3]. - Caustic soda has rebound potential due to historical seasonal profits caused by short - term supply - demand mismatches of liquid chemicals [3]. - In the second half of the year, pay attention to inventory - building in alumina, exports, and non - aluminum sectors. Low inventory levels may lead to shortages [3]. - The futures will show a discount structure, and the short - profit logic is hard to disprove. One can consider positive spreads by focusing on downstream inventory - building [3].