棕榈油：产地近端基本面改善有限，反套表达，豆油：警惕地缘缓和带来回调风险

Report Overview - The report focuses on the fundamental analysis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, including price trends, trading volume, positions, and macro - industry news [1][2][4] Core Views - For palm oil, the near - term fundamental improvement in the producing areas is limited, and a reverse spread strategy is recommended [1] - For soybean oil, there is a risk of a price pull - back due to potential geopolitical easing [1] Industry News - ITS reported that Indonesia's palm oil exports in May increased by 43.3% or 59.9 million tons month - on - month to 1.983 billion tons [2] - The USDA predicted that the total cost of producing soybeans in the US in 2025 would be $639.15 per acre, and in 2026 it would be $650.34 per acre [4] - As of the week ending June 17, about 13% of US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and 2% last year [4] - Analysts noted that rainfall in the Canadian prairies is expected to ease the drought, where about 40% of the area is currently experiencing drought. The Canadian Statistics Bureau will release a sowing area report on June 27, and its March report showed that the rapeseed planting area was 21.6 million acres, a 1.7% decrease from the 2024/25 season [4] Futures Market Data Price and Price Change | Variety | Day - session Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Day - session Price Change (%) | Night - session Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Night - session Price Change (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil Main Contract | 8,538 | 0.23% | 8,596 | 0.68% | | Soybean Oil Main Contract | 8,152 | 0.84% | 8,196 | 0.54% | | Rapeseed Oil Main Contract | 9,691 | - 0.12% | 9,737 | 0.47% | | Malaysian Palm Oil Main Contract (ringgit/ton) | 4,102 | 0.02% | 4,143 | 0.95% | [1] Trading Volume and Position | Variety | Previous Trading Volume (lots) | Trading Volume Change | Previous Position (lots) | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil Main Contract | 605,854 | - 49,717 | 505,691 | - 6,669 | | Soybean Oil Main Contract | 463,250 | 35,939 | 615,911 | 30,527 | | Rapeseed Oil Main Contract | 314,433 | - 118,096 | 390,919 | 2,081 | [1] Spot Price and Price Change | Variety | Spot Price (yuan/ton) | Price Change | | --- | --- | --- | | 24 - degree Palm Oil (Guangdong) | 8,800 | 0 | | First - grade Soybean Oil (Guangdong) | 8,360 | 70 | | Fourth - grade Imported Rapeseed Oil (Guangxi) | 9,760 | 10 | | Malaysian Palm Oil FOB (Continuous Contract, US dollars/ton) | 1,005 | 10 | [1] Basis and Spread | Variety | Basis (yuan/ton) | Spread (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil (Guangdong) | 262 | Palm Oil 9 - 1 Spread: 30 (Previous: 42) | | Soybean Oil (Guangdong) | 208 | Soybean Oil 9 - 1 Spread: 76 (Previous: 70) | | Rapeseed Oil (Guangxi) | 69 | Rapeseed Oil 9 - 1 Spread: 115 (Previous: 130) | | Rapeseed - Palm Oil Futures Main Contract Spread | 1,153 (Previous: 1,185) | | | Soybean - Palm Oil Futures Main Contract Spread | - 386 (Previous: - 434) | | [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is - 1, and that of soybean oil is - 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval [5]