国信证券晨会纪要-20250620

Macro and Strategy - The issuance of special bonds for land reserves has reached nearly 170 billion [7] - In the 24th week (June 9-15), the net financing of government bonds was 2,190 billion, and for the 25th week (June 16-22), it is expected to be 2,594 billion, with a cumulative total of 6.8 trillion [7][8] - The total general deficit as of the 24th week is 51 trillion, with a progress rate of 43.4% [7] Industry and Company Machinery Industry - The machinery industry index rose by 0.79% in May, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.06 percentage points [8] - The TTM price-to-earnings ratio and price-to-book ratio for the machinery industry are approximately 31.03 and 2.42, respectively, remaining stable month-on-month [8] - The PMI index for May was 49.50%, indicating a 0.5 percentage point increase, reflecting a gradual strengthening of domestic demand [9] - In May 2025, the sales of various excavators reached 18,202 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.12% [9] - Key investment recommendations include companies such as Huace Testing, Guodian Measurement, and XCMG [9][10] Internet Industry - OpenAI launched the o3-pro AI model, enhancing performance and output accuracy [10] - ByteDance released the Doubao large model 1.6, adopting a unified pricing model [10] - The overall performance of the internet sector remains stable, with recommendations for defensive stocks like Tencent Music and NetEase [11] China Petroleum (601857.SH) - China Petroleum has made significant advancements in energy supply and unconventional oil and gas development [12] - The company is focusing on a "reduce oil and increase specialty" strategy through refinery upgrades and extending the natural gas industry chain [13] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are maintained at 167.4 billion, 170.9 billion, and 174 billion, with diluted EPS of 0.91, 0.93, and 0.95, respectively [13]