新世纪期货交易提示（2025-6-20）-20250620

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Sell on rallies [2] - Coking coal and coke: Low-level oscillation [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Low-level oscillation [2] - Glass: Low-level oscillation [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward movement [2] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward movement [2] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Rebound [3] - Gold: High-level oscillation [3] - Silver: Stronger performance [3] - Pulp: Weak oscillation [5] - Logs: Oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [5] - Palm oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [5] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [5] - Soybean meal: Rebound [5] - Rapeseed meal: Rebound [5] - Soybean No. 2: Rebound [5] - Soybean No. 1: Rebound [5] - Live pigs: Rebound [7] - Rubber: Rebound [9] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Wait-and-see [9] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [10] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the supply, demand, and inventory of various commodities and financial products, and provides corresponding investment ratings and trading strategies [2][3][5][7][9] - It also takes into account geopolitical factors, economic data, and policy changes to assess market trends and risks [2][3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments decreased, but remained at a high level. Steel production increased, and iron ore port inventories continued to decline. However, if iron water production falls below 2.4 million tons, iron ore prices may decline [2] - Coking coal and coke: Environmental inspections led to supply contraction, but demand weakened due to falling iron water production and coking enterprise production cuts. Coke prices faced downward pressure [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Entering the off-season, demand weakened, and the supply-demand structure continued to deteriorate. Prices were likely to fall [2] - Glass: There was no substantial positive news, and prices were in a low-level oscillation. Attention should be paid to downstream demand recovery [2] Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: Market sentiment improved, and it was recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [2][3][4] - Treasury bonds: Market interest rates were stable, and it was recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds with a light position [3] - Precious metals: Gold prices were expected to oscillate at a high level, and silver was expected to perform strongly. Attention should be paid to interest rate policies and geopolitical risks [3] Light Industry - Pulp: Cost support weakened, and demand entered the off-season. Prices were expected to oscillate weakly [5] - Logs: Demand decreased, but the cost side's negative impact might weaken. Prices were expected to oscillate [5] Oil and Fat - Oils: The supply was abundant, and it was in the off-season for demand. However, the sector was boosted by international oil prices and US biofuel policies. It was expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [5] - Meals: The market was affected by weather and supply. Prices were expected to rebound, but the rebound space was restricted [5] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Supply pressure might increase, and demand was weak. However, low prices stimulated purchasing and rising feed costs provided support. Prices were expected to rebound [7] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply was tight due to rainfall, and demand showed a structural recovery. Inventories were decreasing. Prices were expected to rebound [9] Polyester - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF: The market was affected by factors such as oil prices, supply, and demand. It was recommended to adopt a wait-and-see approach [9][10]