宝城期货煤焦早报-20250620

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term and mid - term trends of both coking coal and coke futures are expected to be in a sideways pattern, with an intraday bias towards a slightly stronger trend, and both are likely to trade in a low - level range - bound manner [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - Price Information: The latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 865.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.8%, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 834 yuan/ton [5]. - Core Logic: During the safety month, domestic coking coal production has shrunk due to safety inspections, environmental protection, and operational pressure, and the price inversion of imported coal has curbed imports, which has alleviated the pessimistic supply outlook. Geopolitical events have also improved market sentiment, driving the main coking coal futures contract to stop falling and rebound. However, the long - term supply glut situation has not been completely reversed, and there is still a possibility of increased production after the safety month, so there is insufficient driving force for a significant increase in coal prices [5]. Coke (J) - Price Information: The latest quotation of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port is 1270 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 1401 yuan/ton [6]. - Core Logic: As positive factors accumulate, the previously pessimistic market sentiment has changed, some short positions have taken profits and left the market, and the game between long and short positions has intensified, leading to low - level wide - range fluctuations in coke futures. Looking ahead, although coking coal supply has shrunk in June, production may recover after the safety month, and the long - term export pressure on ferrous metal terminals remains, so the coke futures are expected to continue to trade in a wide - range oscillation in June [6].