宝城期货国债期货早报-20250620

Group 1: Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation on the strong side", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is that macro - economic indicators are weak, and the expectation of monetary easing is rising [1] Group 2: Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "oscillation on the strong side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that yesterday, treasury bond futures showed an oscillatory consolidation trend. The latest macro - economic data indicates that economic growth momentum has slowed, external tariff impacts are emerging, and domestic demand's endogenous momentum is insufficient. Future monetary policy needs to be more accommodative to support economic demand. However, in the short term, the policy interest rate was not cut in June as the effect of the May rate cut remains to be verified. The expectation of a rate cut may need to wait for the policy guidance from the Politburo meeting in July and the Fed's monetary policy. The possibility of a short - term rate cut is low. In general, treasury bond futures will remain in an oscillatory consolidation in the short term [5]