豆类油脂早报-20250620

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall price of domestic meal futures is strengthening. Despite short - term fluctuations, the upward trend remains due to the support of import costs and the existing long - term procurement gap [5]. - The demand expectation of palm oil has weakened, but the oil market is still strong with the rotation of the oil plate. The soybean oil price has led the rise again [7]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - Viewpoints: The intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is strong. The reference view is oscillating strongly [5]. - Core Logic: Due to the public holiday, the US market was closed on Thursday. With the support of import costs and the long - term procurement gap, the long - term supply is pushed up by import costs, and the upward trend remains [5]. 3.2. Palm Oil (P) - Viewpoints: The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillating strongly, and the reference view is also oscillating strongly [6][7]. - Core Logic: India has cancelled some palm oil orders, leading to a weakening of demand expectations, and the international palm oil futures price is oscillating at a high level. The rotation of the oil plate is evident, and the strength of the oil market persists [7]. 3.3. Other Influencing Factors - For soybean meal 2509, factors include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand [6]. - For soybean oil 2509, factors involve US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6]. - For palm 2509, factors include biodiesel properties, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6].