美联储短期保持观望：美联储决议声明变化较小，保持政策利率不变符合预期，认为经济不确定性小

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve maintains the policy interest rate at 5.25%-5.5% due to high economic uncertainty[2] - The median GDP growth forecast for 2023 has been revised down from 1.7% to 1.4%[2] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise by 0.1 percentage points to 4.5%[2] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - PCE inflation forecast for 2023 has increased from 2.7% to 3%[2] - The Fed's dot plot indicates a risk of economic stagnation, with a median forecast for 2026 GDP growth reduced from 1.8% to 1.6%[2] - The core PCE inflation forecast for 2026 and 2027 has been raised to 2.4% and 2.1%, respectively[2] Group 3: Future Rate Cuts and Market Impact - The Fed is expected to start cutting rates in September, with a potential second cut in November or December, bringing the year-end federal funds rate to approximately 3.83%[2] - Long-term Treasury yields are anticipated to rise initially before declining, with the 10-year yield expected to end the year around 4.2%[1] - The US dollar index is projected to decrease from 99 to 97 by year-end, influenced by geopolitical risks and policy instability[1]