山金期货黑色板块日报-20250620

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the rebar and hot - rolled coil sector, the market is in a state of weak reality and weak expectation. With the arrival of rainy seasons and high - temperature weather, demand will further weaken and inventory may slightly increase, but prices may have fully reflected various negative factors. Technically, the futures price shows a stabilizing signal [2]. - For the iron ore sector, with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, iron - water output is expected to decline further. The supply is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. High port inventory and a high proportion of traded ore inventory put pressure on futures prices, and the futures price is in a large - range oscillation pattern [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - Market Background: The Israel - Iran conflict continues, and crude oil prices have risen sharply and then fallen. National Bureau of Statistics data shows that housing prices in all tiers have declined month - on - month, indicating that the real estate market is still at the bottoming stage [2]. - Supply and Demand: MySteel data shows that this week, rebar production has increased, factory inventory has decreased, social inventory has continued to decline, total inventory has decreased, and apparent demand has continued to decline month - on - month, indicating a state of weak supply and demand [2]. - Technical Analysis: The futures price has rebounded after hitting the bottom, showing a stabilizing signal [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Close long positions on rallies and then maintain a wait - and - see attitude. Short - term long positions can be taken after a pullback [2]. - Data Details: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures prices have increased slightly compared to last week, while spot prices have mostly decreased. The basis and spreads of futures contracts have changed, and the production, inventory, and trading volume of related steel products have also shown different trends. For example, the national building steel trading volume (7 - day moving average) has decreased significantly [3]. Iron Ore - Market Background: The Israel - Iran conflict continues without signs of easing, and oil prices have rebounded sharply and then fallen. The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, but iron - water output is expected to decline further [5]. - Supply and Demand: The global shipment of iron ore is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The port inventory decline rate has slowed down, and the proportion of traded ore inventory is high, putting pressure on futures prices [5]. - Technical Analysis: The futures price is in a large - range oscillation pattern [5]. - Operation Suggestion: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, go long after a pullback, and avoid chasing up or selling down [5]. - Data Details: The spot and futures prices of iron ore have changed, and the basis, futures spreads, and variety spreads have also fluctuated. Overseas shipment volumes, sea freight, exchange rates, port inventory, and other data have also shown different trends. For example, Australian iron ore shipments have decreased, while Brazilian shipments have increased [5]. Industry News - As of the week of June 19, rebar production has increased from a decline, factory inventory has decreased for the fourth consecutive week, social inventory has decreased for the fifteenth consecutive week, and apparent demand has decreased for the third consecutive week [8]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants in the country is - 23 yuan/ton, with different profit levels in different regions [8]. - As of June 19, the total inventory of national float - glass sample enterprises has increased, reaching an 8 - and - a - half - month high, and the inventory of Chinese pulp at mainstream ports has also increased slightly [8].