白银行业专题报告：低估的贵金属，金银比亟待修复

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strong Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The fifth gold-silver ratio has reached a historical peak, indicating that silver prices are in urgent need of correction. Historically, the price trends of gold and silver have shown a positive correlation. The gold-silver ratio has peaked four times since 1968, corresponding to significant global crises. The current gold-silver ratio peaked at 104 during the trade war initiated by the Trump administration, and has since corrected to around 93, suggesting a potential silver price increase of 56% if the ratio returns to 60 with gold priced at $3,400 per ounce [2][24]. - Silver supply and demand are stable, with physical investment demand expected to recover in 2025. The global silver supply is projected to be 32,100 tons in 2025, a slight increase of 1.52%. The demand for silver is expected to decline slightly by 1.36% in 2025, but physical investment demand may see a recovery due to the correction in the gold-silver ratio [2][36]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies such as Xingye Silver Tin and Shengda Resources [2]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Financial and Industrial Attributes of Silver - Silver possesses both financial and industrial attributes, with its price closely linked to economic conditions. The historical data shows a positive correlation between gold and silver prices, especially during times of economic instability [14][17]. - The current economic environment, characterized by easing recession fears and improving economic expectations, is expected to drive a rebound in silver prices [18][21]. Section 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global distribution of silver is widespread, with stable mining output. In 2024, global silver production is expected to be 25,000 tons, with Mexico, Peru, and China being the leading producers [30][32]. - The overall supply of silver is expected to remain stable, with a projected supply of 31,600 tons in 2024, slightly increasing to 32,100 tons in 2025. The demand structure is primarily driven by industrial needs, jewelry, and investment [36][39]. - Silver demand is projected to be approximately 36,207 tons in 2024, with industrial demand accounting for 59% and investment demand for 16% [39][43]. Section 3: Company Comparisons - Xingye Silver Tin: The company is expected to achieve a silver production of 304 tons in 2025, a 32.8% increase from 2024. The company holds significant silver mining assets, positioning it as a potential global leader in silver and tin production [52]. - Shengda Resources: The company is projected to produce 173 tons of silver in 2025, with a focus on expanding its mining capacity in the coming years. The company has shown significant growth in net profit, indicating strong operational performance [54].