甲醇日评：地缘不确定性高，建议暂时观望-20250620

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating but suggests a wait - and - see approach for methanol investment [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Methanol is expected to experience short - term narrow - range fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see. The current main factor influencing methanol's trend is the development of the Middle East situation. If the geopolitical situation further escalates, the oversupply expectation of the methanol market may turn into a shortage in the short term. However, considering the poor overall profit of the downstream industry and its limited acceptance of high - price methanol, if the profit further deteriorates, it may lead to large - scale maintenance, guiding the supply - demand balance. The 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2300 - 2550 [1] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Price and Basis - Methanol Futures Prices: On June 19, 2025, the closing price of MA01 in Taicang was 2515 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (0.60% relative change) from the previous day; MA05 was 2413 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.21%); MA09 was 2543 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton (1.03%) [1] - Methanol Spot Prices: In different regions on June 19, 2025, the prices showed various changes. For example, in Guangdong, it was 2640 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton (2.31%); in Shandong, it was 2310 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (1.09%); in Shaanxi, there was no change at 2122.50 yuan/ton; in Sichuan - Chongqing, it was 2400 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton (2.13%); in Hubei, there was no change at 2375.00 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it was 2005.00 yuan/ton, up 7.50 yuan/ton (0.38%) [1] - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was 247.50 yuan/ton on June 19, 2025, up 47.50 yuan from the previous day [1] 3.2. Upstream Costs - Coal Spot Prices: On June 19, 2025, the price of Ordos Q5500 was 422.50 yuan/ton with no change; Datong Q5500 was 475.00 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (1.06%); Yulin Q6000 was 482.50 yuan/ton with no change [1] - Industrial Natural Gas Prices: In Hohhot and Chongqing on June 19, 2025, the prices were 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively, both with no change [1] 3.3. Profit Situation - Methanol Production Profits: On June 19, 2025, the profit of coal - based methanol was 469.70 yuan/ton with no change; the profit of natural - gas - based methanol was - 440.00 yuan/ton with no change [1] - Downstream Profits of Methanol: On June 19, 2025, the profit of Northwest MTO was 535.20 yuan/ton, down 12.60 yuan/ton (-2.30%); the profit of East China MTO was - 1425.07 yuan/ton, down 138.50 yuan/ton (-10.77%); the profit of acetic acid was 300.97 yuan/ton, down 38.50 yuan/ton (-11.34%); the profit of MTBE was 198.60 yuan/ton with no change; the profit of formaldehyde was - 248.00 yuan/ton with no change; the profit of dimethyl ether was 560.00 yuan/ton with no change [1] 3.4. Important Information - Domestic Futures Prices: On June 20, 2025, the main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated at a high level, opening at 2523 yuan/ton, closing at 2543 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 2908067 lots and an open interest of 909435, showing increased volume and open interest. All contracts had trading during the trading day [1] - Foreign Information: Currently, 11 methanol plants with a total capacity of 17.16 million tons in a certain Middle Eastern country are operating at a low load, and ports such as Assaluyeh are operating normally [1]