苯乙烯风险管理日报-20250620

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Fundamentally, the pattern of strong near - term and weak long - term for styrene remains unchanged, but recent market prices are greatly affected by macro factors. It is recommended to wait and see, and it is more prudent to enter short positions after the macro situation stabilizes [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price range forecast for styrene is 7000 - 7800 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 29.40% and a historical percentile of 85.8% over 3 years [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, to prevent inventory depreciation, short styrene futures (EB2508) at 25% hedging ratio in the 7600 - 7700 yuan range; sell call options (EB2508C750) at 50% hedging ratio in the 140 - 160 yuan range [2] - For procurement management with low regular inventory, to prevent rising procurement costs, buy styrene futures (EB2508) at 50% hedging ratio in the 7300 - 7400 yuan range; sell put options (EB2508P7300) at 75% hedging ratio in the 110 - 150 yuan range [2] Core Contradiction - The near - term and long - term strength pattern of styrene in the fundamentals remains unchanged, but the recent market price is highly influenced by macro factors. It is advisable to wait and enter short positions after the macro situation stabilizes [3] Bullish Factors - As of June 16, 2025, the styrene port inventory in Jiangsu was 6.63 tons, a decrease of 1.37 tons (-17.13%) from the previous period; as of June 12, 2025, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene factories was 18.46 tons, a decrease of 0.68 tons (-3.55%) from the previous period. The expected styrene arrivals in the next period are still low [4] - The intensifying geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has led to rising oil prices, driving up the price of styrene [4] - As the June paper - cargo delivery approaches, the near - end basis of styrene has strengthened again [7] - Macro - level benefits and downstream factory restocking have supported the rise in pure benzene prices. Sinopec has raised the listed price of pure benzene to 6400 yuan/ton [7] Bearish Factors - As of June 16, the pure benzene port inventory in Jiangsu was 15.3 tons, a 2.68% increase from the previous period. European pure benzene supplies are expected to arrive in mid - to late June, with high subsequent arrivals [8] - The previously shut - down units of pure benzene and styrene are gradually resuming operation, and the peak maintenance period has passed, with increasing supply [8] - The US Department of Commerce announced on June 12 that starting from June 23, a 50% import tariff will be imposed on household appliances containing steel components, putting pressure on the terminal demand for styrene [9] Price and Basis Changes - The daily changes in styrene basis are presented in the table, showing the differences between different regions and contract months [9] - The daily changes in the price spread of the pure benzene - styrene industrial chain are presented in the table, including the spreads between different time points and contracts [9] Industry Chain Prices - The prices of various products in the styrene industry chain, such as Brent crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, pure benzene, and styrene, and their changes from June 12 - 19, 2025 are presented in the table [9][10]