华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250620

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunguizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to stop production from mid - January and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 steel mill stopped production on January 5th, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment was pessimistic, and the price center continued to shift downward. Winter storage was sluggish this year, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum Ingots - In June, the price of bauxite fluctuated, and the overall cost of alumina did not change significantly. As of Thursday, the national metallurgical - grade alumina's total built - in production capacity was 110.82 million tons/year, and the operating total capacity was 88.57 million tons/year. The weekly start - up rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 79.92% due to the consideration of ore - using costs [3] - In June, the off - season atmosphere of downstream aluminum processing was strong. The weekly start - up rate decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 59.8% [3] - On June 19, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 449,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons from Monday and 11,000 tons from last Thursday. It was still at a low level in the past three years [3] - In June, the proportion of aluminum water is expected to rise slightly, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline. However, due to the expected increase in ingot casting by some aluminum plants, the supply and shipment in the northwest have increased slightly, and the arrival of goods has put pressure on the East China region, alleviating the shortage of circulating goods [3] - The high - level operation of aluminum prices has inhibited domestic demand, and the inventory reduction in the second half of the month may face slowdown pressure [3] - Overseas macro - instability still exists. Low inventory and the expected increase in the proportion of aluminum water support aluminum prices, but the off - season demand pressure limits the upward space. The spot of aluminum ingots in mainstream consumption areas may face a situation of weak supply and demand [4]