美国放松SLR监管规则有望短期落地

Market Overview - Global stock markets are underperforming due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showing declines of 0.79% and 2.13% respectively[3][15]. - European markets are also weak, with the Eurozone Stoxx 600 index down 0.8% and major indices like the DAX and CAC 40 experiencing declines of 1.1% and 1.3% respectively[7][9]. U.S. Regulatory Changes - The U.S. is expected to relax the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) regulations, potentially increasing demand for U.S. Treasury bonds by approximately $200 billion, which is about one-ninth of the potential impact from the "Big Beautiful Act" [5]. - This regulatory change is anticipated to improve liquidity in the U.S. Treasury market but may not significantly lower long-term Treasury yields[5]. Commodity and Currency Movements - Oil prices have seen a slight increase, with Brent crude closing up nearly 3% at $78.85 per barrel, as market speculation about immediate U.S. military action against Iran has decreased[4][26]. - The U.S. dollar index remains stable at 98.91, with a year-to-date decline of 8.8%[27]. Asian Market Performance - The Asia-Pacific stock markets are predominantly down, with Thailand and Hong Kong indices dropping by 2.4% and 2.0% respectively, while Japan's Nikkei 225 fell by 1.0%[21][22]. - A-shares are also affected, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.79% and over 4,600 stocks declining across the market[15]. Individual Stock Highlights - Coinbase is projected to benefit from the upward trend in the cryptocurrency market, with expected trading volume reaching $1.162 trillion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 149%[8]. - Chow Tai Fook's revenue is under pressure, but the company anticipates a recovery in FY2026, focusing on high-quality store openings and brand transformation[13].