东吴证券晨会纪要-20250620

Macro Strategy - The Federal Reserve did not lower interest rates in June and removed the judgment of higher unemployment and inflation from its statement, indicating a more stagflationary economic outlook [1][11] - The Fed revised down its GDP growth forecast for the US to 1.4% for Q4 2025 and raised the unemployment rate forecast to 4.5%, while also increasing the PCE inflation forecast to 3.0% [1][11] - The dot plot distribution has become more hawkish, with a significant number of officials expecting no rate cuts this year, reflecting concerns over inflation risks [1][11] Industry Analysis - The bus industry showed a year-on-year increase in production and exports in May, with Yutong Bus expected to achieve a net profit of 46.3 billion yuan in 2025, growing at 12% annually [6][16] - Jinlong Automobile is projected to have a significant profit rebound, with net profits expected to reach 4.4 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 182% increase [6][16] Recommended Stocks - Liyuanheng is positioned to benefit from the recovery in the lithium battery equipment industry, with a projected net profit of 0.6 billion yuan in 2025, and a corresponding PE ratio of 96 [7][17] - Zhenyu Technology is expected to see a net profit of 4.1 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 63%, supported by its advancements in precision manufacturing and robotics [8][19] - Xiaogoods City has completed the招商 of its jewelry sector and plans to establish a Hong Kong subsidiary to enhance its cross-border payment ecosystem, with projected net profits of 42.3 billion yuan in 2025 [9][21]